The domestic and international soybean markets are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in mid- to long-term prices under cost support.

From the domestic soybean market perspective, before the Qingming Festival, soybean prices in Northeast China continued to decline, mainly due to recent frequent releases of local reserve soybeans and some areas experiencing failed auctions, reversing the previous situation of high premiums and 100% transaction rates. In March, reserve releases occurred twice, each totaling over 100k tons of domestic soybeans, with an average transaction rate of about 50% and premiums of 0 to 30 yuan per ton. Additionally, as the weather warms, soybeans are less suitable for storage at the grassroots level, and farmers’ reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to increased shipment volumes. In comparison, traders of domestic soybeans maintain a strong price-keeping mentality and mostly remain optimistic about the future market. China’s downstream food processing companies purchase on demand, with low enthusiasm for stockpiling, resulting in a fierce game of supply and demand in the domestic soybean market, and short-term market fluctuations are likely. With rising costs of fertilizers, land rent, and other planting expenses, and against the background of rising international oilseed prices, it is expected that soybean A prices will remain relatively strong in the medium to long term. Overall, supported by cost factors, both domestic and international soybean markets are expected to see medium- to long-term price strength. In the short term, due to the impact of phased supply shocks, soybean prices may experience slight weakness. (Grain and Oil Market Report)