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Bernstein: Predicts that trading volume in the prediction market will surpass $1 trillion by 2030, with Robinhood and Coinbase expected to become core distribution platforms.
Deep Tide TechFlow News. April 15, as reported by CoinDesk, the Wall Street securities firm Bernstein released a research report stating that it expects market trading volume to grow from $51 billion in 2025 to about $1 trillion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 80%. Trading volume in 2026 is expected to reach $240 billion, and Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined trading volume since the beginning of the year has already reached $60 billion.
The report holds that clearer federal-level regulation, blockchain infrastructure support for global liquidity, and mainstream trading platforms’ integration are the core drivers of growth. Industry revenue is expected to rise from about $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030.
Distribution capability is seen as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue scale of $350 million through prediction markets and has advanced its exchange infrastructure rollout; Coinbase, meanwhile, leverages the Kalshi platform to provide a nationwide access entry to more than 1,000 contracts. Bernstein maintains a “Outperform the Market” rating for both companies.