Liquidity Restoration and Policy Battles: Mid-term Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies in the Bitcoin Market

On April 15, 2026, Bitcoin's price fluctuated within the $74,000-$75,000 range, rebounding about 10% from the April 7 low of $67,740. This week, the market demonstrated strong resilience in recovery, driven by the initial implementation of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and progress on the US "Clear Act," leading to a dual recovery of sentiment and liquidity. Technical indicators show Bitcoin maintaining dynamic support above the 50-day moving average, but the key resistance at $75,500 failed to be effectively broken, triggering profit-taking. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's April rate cut probability has dropped near zero, with market consensus shifting from "tightening concerns" to "steady observation." This article combines on-chain data, capital flows, and macro policies to propose asset allocation and trading strategies under the current market environment.

1. Market Review and Key Data

Price trend: Bitcoin opened at $74,175 on April 15, with a high of $74,766 and a low of $73,625, currently around $74,560, up approximately 5.27% in 24 hours. From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded continuously since hitting the $67,740 low on April 7, with a total increase of over 10%, while trading volume has expanded to over $54 billion, indicating growing buying strength.

Capital flows: Crypto funds recorded the largest weekly inflow since early January 2026, totaling $1.12B, with Bitcoin accounting for $872 million. Since the beginning of the year, overall capital flow has officially turned positive. However, data from April 12 shows a net outflow of $280 million from crypto ETFs, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow of $34.7 million and FBTC outflow of $229 million, indicating ongoing divergence among institutional investors.

Market sentiment: Santiment data shows Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from the fear zone at the end of January, but "FUD" (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) sentiment has not fully dissipated. On the evening of April 14, the crypto market surged across the board, with Bitcoin breaking the $75,000 mark, with over 185k liquidations in 24 hours totaling over $660 million, with short positions losing $521 million, indicating strong short covering.

2. Technical Analysis: Key Level Battles and Trend Outlook

Moving averages show a bullish pattern. Bitcoin's price remains above the 50-day MA (~$74,028), with short-term MAs (MA5, MA10, MA20) forming a golden cross and diverging upward. Medium- and long-term MAs (MA100, MA200) are flattening and gradually turning upward, indicating a mid-term trend recovery. Notably, after reaching the resistance at $75,500, the price retraced naturally, as this level is the upper boundary of a previous dense trading zone; sustained volume is needed for a breakout.

Momentum indicators show positive signals but caution against overbought conditions. The RSI (14) has recovered from oversold levels to 63.46, in a neutral to bullish zone; MACD histogram is positive, with the difference line above zero, indicating ongoing upward momentum. However, the stochastic RSI has reached 92.85, and the Williams %R indicator hits zero, signaling short-term overbought pressure and potential technical correction risks.

Support and resistance levels are clear. Key support is at $72,500-$73,000, coinciding with previous rebound highs and the 50-day MA. Strong support is at the $70,000 round number and the prior low of $67,740. Resistance is at $75,500 in the short term, with potential tests at $78,000-$80,000 after a breakout; stronger resistance exists at $85,000 and the all-time high of $126,000.

3. Macro Environment: Liquidity Turning Point and Policy Battles

The Fed's policy path remains a core variable. According to Fed Watch data, markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in April and July 2026. However, the latest consensus as of April 15 suggests the April rate cut is unlikely, with macro conditions shifting from "tightening worries" to "steady observation." March US CPI YoY data met expectations, while PPI YoY was below forecasts, indicating inflation pressures are easing but still resilient, supporting the case for no rate cuts.

The Bank of Japan's policy poses potential risks. It is expected to raise interest rates to 1% in April 2026, ending decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, which could trigger "yen carry trade" unwinding and global liquidity tightening. Historical data shows that tightening Japanese monetary policy often leads to Bitcoin price declines, though Fed rate cuts might provide some buffer. Investors should remain alert to cross-market liquidity shocks.

Regulatory signals are positive. The US Senate ended its Easter recess on April 13, with a critical legislative moment for the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act." If passed, this bill would transfer primary regulation of cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), reversing the high-pressure regulatory stance from the Biden administration. Additionally, Goldman Sachs filed for a Bitcoin premium yield ETF on April 15, indicating traditional financial institutions are shifting from passive holdings to active management strategies.

Geopolitical improvements offer risk premium compression. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has made initial progress, though a final deal is pending, boosting market confidence. OPEC's March oil output cut of 27% further disrupts global inflation expectations, providing relief for risk assets.

4. Trading Strategies and Risk Management

Long-term investors should monitor the sustainability of liquidity recovery. The market has entered the "high-value zone" tail, with Bitcoin down about 40% from the all-time high of $126,000, improving risk-reward ratios. A phased accumulation strategy is recommended, gradually building core positions in the $72,000-$75,000 range, targeting $85,000 and the psychological $100,000 level. Regarding position management, referencing previous asset allocation frameworks, 30%-40% can be allocated to gold as a risk hedge, with remaining funds deployed into Bitcoin and high-quality mainstream coins.

Short-term traders should focus on key level breakthroughs and volume confirmation. The $75,500 level is a critical support/resistance point; a volume breakout could signal a bullish move with stop-loss below $74,000 and targets at $77,000-$78,000. If resistance persists, consider light long positions near $72,500 with stops at $71,000 and targets at $74,500-$75,000. Be cautious of sudden volatility from BOJ rate hikes or Fed policy shifts, and set strict stop-losses to avoid high leverage risks.

Risk controls should prioritize the following triggers: first, if Bitcoin falls below $70,000 and fails to recover over three days, reduce positions; second, if the "Clear Act" faces legislative hurdles or the BOJ hikes more than expected, lower risk exposure; third, if ETF capital flows are out for two consecutive weeks, indicating institutional sentiment turning bearish, adjust strategies accordingly.

Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical window of liquidity recovery and policy battles. Technicals show mid-term trend recovery, but breaking $75,500 requires volume support; macro-wise, Fed rate cut expectations are delayed but still possible within the year, while BOJ hikes pose potential shocks. Capital flows show institutional divergence, and market sentiment is recovering from extreme fear. The recommended approach is patience, phased positioning at key supports, strict risk management, and waiting for clearer macro signals for trend opportunities.

Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; investors should make independent decisions based on their risk tolerance.