Recently, I've seen people equate an increase in stablecoin supply directly with "ETF off-chain funds coming in," and I find that causal chain a bit hard to believe… An increase in supply could be due to market makers, cross-exchange arbitrage, or even just a shell swap (moving from one stablecoin to another), and the correlation can easily look like the answer. The group is still repeatedly discussing regulatory transfers, reserve audits, and de-pegging rumors, and when emotions run high, it's even easier to treat charts as stories.

I personally prefer to focus on a few cold indicators: whether on-chain transaction fees and real usage are picking up, whether protocol revenue is sustained by subsidies, and whether active addresses are just a passing trend. If I had followed the "supply = capital" logic to increase my position back then, I would probably be looking for reasons to justify a retracement… Anyway, I’ll take it slow for now and see if it can survive the next round of market noise.