📌 The U.S. has forced Iran into a situation with limited options:

- Open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire
- Halt negotiations to save Hezbollah
- Cancel negotiations immediately as U.S. ships enter the area
-> This time, the U.S. is closing the Strait of Hormuz at the outer channel itself to increase pressure for negotiations.
📌 The oil flow clearly shows who is actually affected:
- China: 37.7%
- India: 14.7%
- South Korea: 12%
- Japan: 10.9%
- Other Asia: 13.9%
- U.S.: 2.5%
-> Clearly, the U.S. does not need oil from Hormuz; Asia is the dependent side. Evidence is that China has had to limit oil exports, release SPR reserves, while the U.S. increased exports from 4.9 to 5.2 million barrels per day (+30% in March)
📌 The U.S. definitely wants negotiations, but is increasing leverage to pressure Iran into talks:
- Military threats are ineffective
- Promises of concessions in negotiations have also failed
- The U.S. is testing Iran’s resolve by sending ships through Hormuz
- U.S. aircraft carriers are deploying near the Mediterranean
📌 Iran’s reactions:
- Retaliate against U.S. ships under the guise of "mine sweeping"
- Avoid blockade by changing flags, fake AIS signals
- Open Hormuz with control
- Pressure China
- Use Houthi to threaten the Red Sea
-> Fewer and fewer options for both sides; Iran can no longer sustain a prolonged attrition war.
📌 The next two weeks seem to be the end of the conflict; the market is pricing in over 70% chance that the war will end before April 30.