I saw that KBW has just downgraded Bitcoin miners HIVE, Bitfarms, and Bitdeer, and honestly the message is clear: the pivot toward AI and HPC is much more complicated than it seemed. Analyst Stephen Glagola points out that these projects are downgraded because, even though the transition sounds attractive, the execution risks are enormous and the wait times could be years.

What caught my attention is that mining margins are at breakeven after the 2024 halving, so these miners need to reinvent themselves or disappear. They’re trying to convert their facilities into AI data centers, but that requires massive capital. Bitfarms expects an agreement in Sharon, Pensilvania until 2026; Bitdeer is scaling but with uncertainty in its AI cloud; and HIVE has return issues that worry the bank.

Target prices were cut quite a bit: Bitdeer fell from $26.50 to $14, HIVE from $11 to $3.50. Only Bitfarms rose slightly to $3 due to the site’s potential. The point is that these miners are downgraded in rating because the transition is a long-term process with a lot of dilution and patience required. It’s not a quick change—it’s a marathon of capital-intensive effort. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to hover around $74.5K after recently touching $76K , so the environment remains challenging for these projects.