✨Oil Market Experiences Geopolitical Turning Point in 48 Hours.

Sharp Correction from $102 to $91

The global oil market witnessed a striking example of how geopolitical risks can be rapidly priced in and then just as quickly reversed in the last 48 hours. Oil prices, which surged to triple-digit levels over the weekend due to escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, entered a sharp correction following signals of diplomatic activity.

Geopolitical Shock and Rapid Retracement

On Sunday, April 13th, news that the US had initiated a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz created concerns about a supply shock, driving oil prices higher. Brent crude rose to $100.83, and US crude oil (WTI) to $102.44.

However, new information later that day reversed the direction. The understanding that the blockade would not cover non-Iranian shipping traffic, and the subsequent rerouting of some tankers, created the expectation that the supply disruption would be limited. Prices quickly eased, falling to $99.36 for Brent and $99.08 for WTI.

Diplomacy triggered the sell-off

The real sharp movement came on April 14th. Sales accelerated when news broke that the White House was preparing to extend the ceasefire with Iran and resume negotiations.

According to market data, WTI closed the day down 7.87% at $91.20. Brent fell 4.6% to $94.79. During intraday trading, WTI stabilized in the $91-92 range.

This decline was a continuation of a broader correction that began in the session when the ceasefire was first announced. Initially, WTI saw a pullback exceeding 16%.

In total, the drop from a peak of $102.44 to $91 over two days represents a decline of approximately 11%. Looking at levels above $100, the loss has exceeded 16%.

Analysts note that lower levels may be seen in low-liquidity long-term contracts, but these do not represent the spot market.

The "War is over" rhetoric

The claim that US President Donald Trump said "the war is over" also does not align with reality. Trump did not use this phrase while discussing military measures in the Strait of Hormuz on Fox News over the weekend.

That statement was made in October 2025 regarding developments in Gaza. In the context of Iran, the latest official rhetoric focuses on extending the ceasefire and returning to negotiations.

Three main factors that reversed the market

According to experts, three critical factors were decisive in changing the direction of prices:

Limited blockade effect: The perception was created that the daily flow of 17-18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would not be completely cut off.

Diplomacy Premium: The expectation that the ceasefire could be extended rapidly eroded the geopolitical risk premium.

Supply Expectations: Signals that Russian oil will remain on the market deepened the sell-off.

In parallel with these developments, Goldman Sachs lowered its WTI forecast for the second quarter of 2026 from $91 to $87.

Searching for a New Equilibrium

According to market professionals, the movement is not a "collapse," but a normalization of the geopolitical risk premium. Oil, already in a strong upward trend throughout 2026, is seeking a new equilibrium in the short term.

The prominent scenarios are as follows:

If the ceasefire is extended: Prices below $90 may be tested, and the $87 level may come into play.

If tensions escalate again: The $98-$100 range may quickly return.

Conclusion

The oil market priced in the possibility of war over the last two days, and then priced in the postponement of this possibility. The decline following the sharp rise is being interpreted less as a panic sell-off and more as a reflection of a rapid shift in risk perception.

In short, the factor pulling prices down was not the "end of a war," but rather the postponement of the possibility of war and increased confidence that supply flows would not be disrupted. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open, $100 will continue to be a psychological threshold, and each new wave of tension seems likely to retest this level.
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