Gate News Report, April 15 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global growth forecast on April 14, citing soaring energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, and presented three scenarios: weaker, worse, and severe. In the worst-case scenario, the global economy teeters on the brink of recession, with oil prices averaging $110 dollars per barrel in 2026 and $125 dollars per barrel in 2027. The IMF’s baseline forecast assumes the conflict will be short-lived, with oil prices returning to normal in the second half of 2026, averaging $82 dollars per barrel for the year, well below the April 14 Brent crude price of about $96. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the outlook may already be outdated, noting ongoing energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict, making the “adverse scenario” increasingly plausible. The central path assumes the conflict persists longer, with oil prices remaining at $100 dollars per barrel in 2026 and $75 dollars per barrel in 2027, and global growth falling from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% this year. The severe scenario assumes further prolongation of the conflict, with oil prices at $110 dollars per barrel in 2026 and $125 dollars per barrel in 2027, reducing global growth to 2%, approaching a global recession. The IMF has lowered its U.S. growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from January, reflecting that tax cuts and AI investments have somewhat offset higher energy costs. The Eurozone’s growth forecasts for both years are revised down by 0.2 percentage points, to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. China’s 2026 growth is expected at 4.4%, down 0.1 percentage points; 2027 growth is forecast at 4.0%. India’s growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 has been raised to 6.5%. The impact on emerging markets and developing economies is more pronounced due to the conflict. In the Middle East and Central Asia, GDP growth in 2026 is projected to decline by two full percentage points to 1.9%, due to infrastructure damage and restricted energy exports. The IMF warns governments not to mitigate higher energy prices through fuel subsidies or price caps, as this could lead to fuel shortages in other countries and disrupt fiscal buffers needed for reconstruction.