Wall Street expects Eli Lilly's weight loss oral medication to generate tens of billions of dollars in sales upon its launch.

Eli Lilly’s recently approved oral weight loss medication is expected to achieve billions of dollars in sales this year. Analysts believe that this drug will quickly narrow the first-mover advantage of Novo Nordisk in the oral weight loss market.

Multiple brokerages estimate that Eli Lilly’s Olumiant (brand name: Foundayo) will reach sales of $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion by 2026, a wide range that reflects both strong market demand expectations and numerous uncertainties in the early stages of launch.

The most optimistic forecast on Wall Street comes from Bernstein, which expects the drug to generate $2 billion to $2.5 billion in revenue in its first full year on the market. Citigroup analysts are even more bullish, predicting that its 2026 revenue will be around $2.8 billion, with peak annual sales surpassing $40 billion.

A more conservative estimate comes from Guggenheim Partners, which projects sales of about $1.5 billion in 2026.

But even at the lowest estimate, this oral drug is poised to reshape the competitive landscape of the industry.

UBS estimates that combined sales of Eli Lilly’s drug and Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide (Wegovy) will reach approximately $5 billion in 2026, marking the emergence of a sizable new category of oral weight loss medications.

Foundayo offers advantages such as simpler manufacturing processes and fewer usage restrictions, making it a strong competitor to Novo Nordisk.

JPMorgan analysts say that the high demand for oral formulations and the advantages of large-scale production could help Foundayo become a mainstream global weight loss medication, especially in international markets. The bank forecasts its sales will soar to $6 billion by 2027.

However, the pace of market penetration in the early stages may be affected by the launch schedule.

Bernstein analysts point out that even if prescription volumes continue to grow, factors such as free trial medications, initial low-dose regimens, and pricing adjustments could suppress short-term revenue. They add that the weekly number of new patients using the drug will be a key metric closely watched by the market.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy has already captured early market share thanks to its first-mover advantage and brand recognition.

In the long term, analysts believe that oral weight loss drugs will expand the scope of obesity treatment. Morningstar data suggests that by 2034, oral weight loss medications could account for about one-third of the global obesity treatment market, which is expected to reach a scale of $180 billion.