#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April 14 Gold and Silver Analysis: The U.S. and Iran Still Have Room for Negotiation; Gold Falls to a Low and Then Rebounds

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Market Review
According to reports from American media such as CBS and CNN, a U.S. official said that the United States and Iran are still holding negotiations, and both sides are working to find a diplomatic solution for this war. “There is still ongoing contact between the U.S. and Iran, and progress is being made in pushing toward an agreement,” the official said. According to TASS on the 13th, citing The Atlantic Monthly, the next round of “direct talks” between the U.S. and Iran may be held on the 16th in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
According to CME“FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 1.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 1%.
The world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—reduced its holdings by 5.227 tons versus the previous day; its current holdings are 1047.192 tons.
The U.S. dollar index fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, slipping below the 99 level. It ultimately closed down 0.25% at 98.42; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2930%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates—also edged down to 3.7830%.
On the chart, gold on the previous trading day opened lower with a gap and started at 4680 dollars, then hit a low of 4638 dollars. After stabilizing, it rebounded from above 4650 dollars. In the Asian session, it surged directly to 4740 dollars before starting to pull back. In the afternoon, after the lowest retracement reached 4708 dollars, it touched above 4730 dollars again; during the European session it pulled back once more. Before the U.S. session, the lowest retracement reached 4703 dollars. In the U.S. session, it first surged to 4735 dollars and then retreated again to 4700 dollars. In the afternoon, it rose again; it ultimately closed at 4741 dollars, and the daily chart printed a bullish candle.
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Today’s View
The market’s decline is due to the breakdown between the U.S. and Iran. Judging from the news this morning, both sides still have room to maneuver, so a covering/rebuying by the bulls is completely normal. Gold is still gold—continuing to trade in a range and oscillate. And this week’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve officials’ collective remarks; hawkish and dovish comments will continue to influence short-term gold price action.
From a technical perspective, gold’s daily chart is still switching between bullish and bearish signals. There is a chance of a bearish close on Tuesday. The upward move from 4099 to 4850 dollars has already come to an end; next, we will likely see a pullback to confirm. Even if new highs are reached again, the pullback will still come—it's only a matter of time. If the market does not fall this week, then it will just remain volatile and range-bound for another week.
The softening of the dollar was the main support for gold’s rebound after it bottomed out on Monday. As for Tuesday, gold has already filled the gap. The pressure on the chart is at 4760–4773 dollars—this is where you would consider taking short positions during the day. The support below is at 4700 dollars and 4680 dollars. Still, follow the range-trading approach: buy high, sell low—be patient and wait!
As for silver: In the previous trading day, silver performed strongly. The resistance above is still at 76–78 dollars, while the support below is at 73.50 and 72.50 dollars. As long as you keep an eye on the range, that’s enough.
These are purely personal views for reference only!