#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Global Gold Short-Term (1–3 months): Fluctuating at high levels, difficult to surge significantly or drop sharply
Current (April 13): London Gold approximately $4,746 per ounce

- Main tone: Mainly oscillating, most likely trading sideways in the $4,500–$4,800 range.
​
- Resistance to rising:
​
- Weak expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts (possibly only once in the whole year, after September)
​
- The US dollar and US Treasury yields are relatively high, suppressing gold prices
​
- Profit-taking pressure from previous gains
​
- Support for falling:
​
- Tensions in the Middle East (Hormuz) increase safe-haven demand
​
- Central banks worldwide continue to buy large amounts of gold
​
- Gold supply and demand gap widens (about 320 tons by 2026)
​
- Conclusion: Short-term, it’s hard to sustain a sharp surge or a deep decline; more likely to oscillate back and forth.

 

Medium to Long Term (6–12 months): Most likely to rise again, breaking new highs

- Core bullish logic remains unchanged:
​
1. The Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates (mainstream expectation: starting in September)
​
- Rate cuts → real interest rates decline → opportunity cost of holding gold decreases → gold prices rise
​
2. Geopolitical risks become normalized (Middle East, Taiwan Strait, election year)
​
- Escalation of conflicts can trigger sharp surges in gold prices
​
3. De-dollarization + central bank gold purchases (long-term strong support)
​
- Multiple countries divesting from the dollar and buying gold, providing strong bottom support
​
4. Tight supply and demand
​
- Mineral growth is slow (1–2%), demand remains steady, widening the gap
​
- Mainstream institutional forecasts (by end of 2026):
​
- Goldman Sachs: $5,400
​
- JPMorgan Chase: $6,300
​
- World Gold Council: baseline $4,830–$5,290, optimistic $5,290–$5,980
​
- UBS: average $5,000
​
 

One-sentence summary (2026)
Short-term oscillation and consolidation, with a higher likelihood of rising again and reaching new highs in the second half of the year.