This time, Trump was negotiating with Iran, and most of the issues were almost settled, but the talks completely broke down over the nuclear issue. Trump slammed the table and directly ordered the U.S. Navy to immediately blockade the Strait of Hormuz: anyone who tries to enter or exit will be stopped, and he also said he would dismantle Iran’s water mines; anyone who opens fire will be blown to hell. Moreover, even ships that previously paid “tolls” to Iran will be intercepted in international waters. Basically, it’s about cutting off Iran’s maritime lifeline entirely. Now, over 300 oil tankers are stuck in the strait, and 20% of the world's oil cannot be shipped.

Alright, that’s the news. Now, let me share my personal opinion: crude oil $XBR go long blindly, gold $XAU should actually be seen as bearish.

No need to waste words about crude oil, right? Supply is directly cut off, Brent crude shot up 8% last night, and $100 is just a window dressing. In the face of such a real supply disruption, it’s no surprise that oil prices are soaring.

But don’t be fooled by the word “safe haven” when it comes to gold. After this news, gold prices actually fell by 2%. Why? Because the market’s first reaction was to sell gold for cash and cover other positions—oil prices surge, stock markets get nervous, institutions sell gold to meet margin calls. Plus, with Trump flexing his muscles, everyone temporarily prefers to buy dollars and U.S. bonds, causing gold to be drained. So, in the short term, gold remains under pressure; don’t rush to buy the dip. ​ ​ ​