Li Daokui: Future entrepreneurs and investors should focus on three major directions

Topic: The Second New Shanghai Merchants High-Quality Development Conference

The Fifth Second Members’ Representatives Conference of the Shanghai New Shanghai Merchants Association and the Second New Shanghai Merchants High-Quality Development Conference were held in Shanghai on March 29. Li Dao-kui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, attended and delivered a speech.

Li Dao-kui said that China’s economy is currently at a critical turning point comparable to 1992 and 2002.

在 his speech, he analyzed three fundamental factors driving this adjustment period by comparing historical data with the current situation. From the perspective of the international landscape, the “post-U.S.-era” is accelerating in its evolution. The share of global GDP accounted for by the U.S. fell from 55% after World War II to 25%; its share of industry dropped from 50% to 17%; and the U.S. has returned to its strategic “original intention,” seeking to reduce global intervention and focus on its domestic agenda.

In terms of technological development, an unprecedented turning point has emerged. AI technology is extremely disruptive; both its pace of development and its patterns of application are unprecedented, and it will profoundly change the course of human destiny.

In addition, China’s old economic model is not sustainable; old growth drivers such as real estate and infrastructure are difficult to restart. The economic focus is shifting to people’s livelihoods and welfare. The international trade model is transforming into outward investment.

Li Dao-kui also emphasized the inevitability of China’s policy shift. He pointed out that the core of the 2026 Two Sessions and the “15th Five-Year Plan” is high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, as well as new quality productive forces. China is in a critical period of transition from “accumulating wealth” to “enhancing welfare.” It must digest the wealth accumulated over the past several decades by boosting domestic demand and people’s livelihoods and welfare; this is a major trend in future development.

Based on the analysis above, Li Dao-kui clearly identified three major directions that entrepreneurs and investors should focus on in the future:

New quality productive forces: Embrace disruptive technologies (such as AI), seek scale-amplifying effects, and achieve a leap from products to services.

A new “going global” strategy: Shift from simply exporting goods to exporting technology, management, and supply chains, conduct outward investment, and identify opportunities by country and region.

A new consumption strategy: Focus on consumption tier-lowering (second- and third-tier cities and rural areas), service consumption (healthcare, education, culture and tourism), and the exploration of niche markets.

Li Dao-kui concluded that China’s economy has entered a crucial adjustment period—this is a profound transformation jointly driven by drastic changes in the international landscape, a turning point in technology, and a shift in the logic of domestic development. Faced with Western anxiety and turmoil, China should remain firmly confident, seize the three major opportunities of “technology, going global, and consumption,” achieve high-quality development by enhancing people’s livelihoods and welfare and realizing technological self-reliance.

Sina Statement: All meeting transcripts are compiled from on-site rapid notes. They have not been reviewed by the speakers. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of disseminating more information, and it does not imply endorsement of the speakers’ views or verification of the descriptions.

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Editor: Wang Xiang