Recently, many people have been blaming Jane Street's "10-point algorithm," but I think that's just surface-level. I spent some time analyzing this week's market data and institutional movements and found that the problem is much more complex than simple manipulation theories.

First and foremost: Bitcoin is not a meme coin and cannot be completely controlled by any single institution. Geopolitical tensions, tightening global liquidity, and ongoing panic in the AI sector are macro factors enough to explain why we're in a bear market. Instead of listening to various conspiracy theories, it's better to look at the data—only data can tell you where the bear market bottom is.

More importantly, there is pressure on corporate treasuries. Digital asset treasury companies (DATs) are undergoing an unprecedented test. Nakamoto Inc's stock price has plummeted 99.32% over 280 days, with $270 million in unrealized losses. They bought 5,398 BTC near $118k, almost at the cycle peak. The most alarming thing is that Bitcoin treasury companies have been net selling for three consecutive weeks—that's a first in history. Except for companies like MicroStrategy with particularly solid balance sheets, most digital asset treasuries can't withstand a prolonged bear market.

Altcoins are now teetering on the edge of a cliff. Mainstream altcoins are testing the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud—this is the last line of defense. Once broken, it’s not just a simple correction but a structural trend reversal. Large-cap Layer-1s like Ethereum are weakening relative to Bitcoin, and high-beta altcoins show no signs of accumulation—in fact, they look exhausted. This is a critical moment: either Bitcoin breaks upward to drive the entire sector, or altcoins confirm a structural deterioration.

The real war isn't over yields but over control. Meta announced plans to integrate stablecoins into Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, and Stripe is looking to acquire PayPal—these moves are based on the logic that the true value of stablecoins lies in shifting power from infrastructure gatekeepers to those controlling wallets and consumer-facing businesses. Stablecoins enable consumer apps to become new super apps, re-packaging financial services—something traditional financial players are genuinely afraid of.

The honeymoon phase for AI is also nearing its end. Even with Nvidia projecting a $78 billion outlook, market reactions remain tepid. Investors are no longer buying into AI concepts at any price; they want to see sustained profitability. Revenue growth alone is no longer enough when expectations are already high.

Crypto hedge fund cash levels have risen to 15.32%, approaching the highest point in a year. This isn't panic; it's a defensive allocation. In uncertain macro environments, cash is king—especially for investors who can't rotate into low-volatility sectors. Even Saylor looks a bit nervous when facing MicroStrategy's cost basis below the current price, despite emphasizing that their debt structure can withstand Bitcoin dropping to $8,000.

So now you understand: this decline isn't manipulation but the start of a structural adjustment. Continuous net selling by corporate treasuries indicates collapsing institutional confidence; breaking below the Ichimoku cloud confirms a structural bear market; accelerated stablecoin integration signals a reconfiguration of payment power; and rational valuation of AI suggests bubbles are beginning to deflate. This analytical framework is critically important.

If this analysis helps you, share it with friends still looking for scapegoats. In the next article, I will dissect where the real bottom signals are.