Global stock markets and commodity markets experience sharp fluctuations, with oil prices soaring to a 14-month high.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on multiple targets within Iran. That day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With the fighting still ongoing and signs of escalation, concerns outside the country have been intensified. As a result, since March, global stock markets and commodity markets have seen sharp volatility, and international oil prices surged to a 14-month high.

Industry insiders believe that the duration of the U.S.-Iran conflict is running beyond market expectations and could trigger a “worst oil crisis in years.” It would not only seriously disrupt global energy supply and drive up inflation, but also affect the direction of monetary policy among major economies—possibly even leading to a global economic recession.

Global stocks fall across the board

In the stock market, equities in Europe and the United States fell across the board. On March 3 (Tuesday), all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.83% to 48501.27; the S&P 500 closed down 0.94% to 6816.63; and the Nasdaq index closed down 1.02% to 22516.69. On the same day, stock markets in Germany, France, and Italy all fell by more than 3%, while the UK stock market dropped 2.75%.

On March 4, the stock markets in Germany, France, and Italy opened lower and then turned higher. By 19:50, gains for the stock markets in Germany, France, and Italy were all above 1%, while the UK stock market’s gain was 0.60%.

Asia-Pacific stock markets saw major adjustments. On March 3, South Korea’s composite stock price index plunged 7.24%, triggering a circuit breaker during trading. On March 4, South Korea’s composite stock price index closed down 12.06%, triggering a circuit breaker again during trading. Since March began, South Korea’s stock market’s cumulative decline has reached 18.43%. In response to the continuous sharp drop in the stock market, South Korea plans to support the market with 100 trillion won.

On March 3, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 3.06%; on March 4, the Nikkei 225 index dropped below 55000, closing down 3.61%. Since March, the Nikkei 225 index has recorded a cumulative decline of 7.82%.

China’s A-share three major indexes fluctuated and fell. On March 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%.

On March 4, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%. From March 1 to 4, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.98%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.41%.

On March 3, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.12%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.26%. On March 4, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.01%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.96%. From March 1 to 4, the Hang Seng Index fell 5.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 6.00%.

Many international banks pointed out that as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives oil prices soaring, it has become a key anchor for the market to reprice global economic growth and inflation expectations—further intensifying global stock market turmoil and divergence.

International oil prices surge

In the commodity market, crude oil futures prices surged sharply, while gold and silver prices saw violent swings.

On March 2, the Brent crude oil futures price at one point jumped 13%, breaking through $82 per barrel, setting a 14-month high. At the close, it was $78.07 per barrel, up 7.14%; WTI crude oil rose by more than 12%, closing at $71.03 per barrel, up 5.98%.

On March 3, Brent crude oil futures prices broke through $85 per barrel and once again set a 14-month high. At the close, it was $81.96 per barrel, up 5.43%; WTI crude oil futures peaked at $77.98 per barrel, closing at $74.80 per barrel, up 5.01%.

On March 4, Brent crude and WTI crude extended their uptrend. As of about 17:13, Brent crude and WTI crude rose 1.60% and 10.6%, respectively. Since March, Brent crude and WTI crude have risen by more than 13% and 12%, respectively.

Jeffrey O’Connor, head of the U.S. stock market structure at the “Liquid Asset Network” company in the United States, said that because the U.S. military operations in the Middle East may continue, the market may face pressure in the coming weeks. High oil prices may be difficult to drop quickly, forcing investors to deal with changes in areas such as U.S. inflation, Treasury yields, and expectations for rate cuts.

Gold and silver prices have been on a “roller-coaster.” On March 3, the prices of gold and silver fell sharply. Spot gold fell by more than 6% at one point during the day; spot silver fell by more than 12% at one point during the day. By the close, spot gold was down more than 4%, at $5088.65 per ounce; spot silver was down more than 8%, at $82 per ounce. London silver spot was down 6.40%, and London gold spot was down 1.01%.

On March 4, gold and silver were boosted straight upward. As of 19:05, spot gold was up more than 1.46%, and spot silver was up more than 3%. London gold spot was up more than 2%, down more than 1.64% since March; London silver spot was up more than 5%, down more than 8% since March.

Regarding the “roller-coaster” behavior of gold and silver prices, Jinxin Futures believes that in the short term, the gold market will show a pattern of “stabilizing with a slightly strong bias and risk-off support.” On the one hand, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and the geopolitical premium persists. On the other hand, central bank gold-buying activities in multiple countries provide support for the market. However, the rebound in inflation combined with a delay in the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts jointly raise pressure on the interest-rate end, constraining the gold price outlook. In the future, gold is likely to remain in a high-range, sideways-to-volatile pattern—neither able to surge in one direction nor likely to fall deeply.

Shenzhen Business Daily · Du Chuang Client reporter Zhong Guobin