OPEC+ plans to symbolically increase the production quota to 206k barrels, but Middle East conflicts hinder actual increased production.

According to media reports citing informed sources, OPEC+’s major member countries have reached a preliminary agreement to raise their May production targets. However, due to damage to Persian Gulf oil transportation caused by the Iran war, this move is more symbolic than a signal of any meaningful increase in output.

Two representatives who asked not to be named told the media that OPEC+’s core member countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia plan, in a video conference on Sunday evening, to raise the May production target by about 206k barrels per day. This figure is exactly the same as the increase approved at the organization’s March 1 meeting.

However, given that oil flows in the Persian Gulf have been severely suppressed by the Iran conflict, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have already been forced to cut supply, and the above production increase targets cannot, in practical terms, be implemented. Analysts believe that this move is, to a greater extent, releasing a policy intent—once the conflict eases, the member countries will quickly restore production.

Affected by the ongoing five-week armed conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran, international oil prices have been roiled dramatically. Last month, they briefly climbed to nearly $120 per barrel. Prices of refined products such as aviation fuel and diesel have risen sharply, and concerns in the market about a new wave of inflation pressure have continued to build. Last Friday, after Trump swore an oath to further escalate the war, Brent crude futures closed down to around $109 per barrel.

The real dilemma behind symbolic statements

Tensions in the Persian Gulf region have put several key oil-producing countries within OPEC+ in a supply squeeze. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have all been forced to reduce exports due to spillover from the fighting, making it difficult for any official adjustment of production quotas to translate into an actual increase in market supply.

Against this backdrop, the significance of OPEC+’s decision this time is closer to a policy signal—telling the market that once regional conditions stabilize, the alliance has the willingness and readiness to restore and expand output.

Before the outbreak of hostilities, OPEC+ was on a previously established path, gradually restoring production capacity that had been compressed since 2023. In the first three months of this year, the organization kept production unchanged, and on March 1—one day after the U.S.-Israel-led coalition first launched strikes against Iran—it approved a modest increase plan of 206k barrels per day. Since then, the pace of implementation has been immediately disrupted by the course of the war.

Supply pressure is not coming only from the Middle East. Russia is also facing difficulties—Ukraine has carried out multiple attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and export routes, causing its oil production and shipments to be continuously disrupted, further compressing OPEC+’s overall available capacity.

With multiple suppliers under strain at the same time, outside observers are taking a cautious view on whether this production-increase resolution can truly improve market supply conditions. For investors, in the short term, the direction of oil prices will depend more on how the Middle East situation evolves than on OPEC+’s quota figures.