VanEck Research Director: BTC derivatives protective demand reaches historical extreme levels, signaling a contrarian bullish indicator

ME News message, on April 4 (UTC+8), VanEck research head Matthew Sigel posted an analysis on the X platform stating that the current protective demand in the bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile in history. It is typically viewed as a “contrarian long signal” amid extremely risk-averse market sentiment, and he judged that the market at its current stage is suitable for establishing long positions. VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, is up 27% since its inception, while bitcoin is down 33% over the same period. Through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable sectors, it has achieved lower volatility. However, he also cautioned that if companies’ massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector cannot generate corresponding returns, they may pose substantial pressure on the market—especially in a context where weights are concentrated in S&P 500 constituent stocks. Note: Percentiles are a statistical positioning concept; the 99th percentile indicates a relatively extreme degree, while the 50th percentile represents the horizontal median. (Source: ChainCatcher)