After the extreme point of emotional ice, the nodes can consider ultra-short-term trading nodes! (Review on 2026.04.04)

Market Recap:[TaoGuba]
Today the Shanghai Composite is -1.00%, the ChiNext Index is -0.73%, and the STAR 50 Index is -0.47%. Total trading volume across both markets is 186.4B, with 716 rising stocks and 4746 falling stocks. Total trading volume across the whole market is 1864 billion less than yesterday.

Overall sentiment feel: broad-based selloff with pockets of strength
Number of stocks that hit the limit-up: 36, yesterday: 27
Number of 20cm limit-ups: 8, yesterday: 2
Number of stocks with consecutive limit-ups: 4, yesterday: 6
Number of limit-downs: 24, yesterday: 5
Limit-up rejection rate today: 25%, yesterday: 40%
Probability of successful “first-board” (first limit-up) today: 14.3%, yesterday: 4%

Big Loss Stocks of the Day
New Zhonggang -19, power sector
Tongda Shares -14, power / commercial aerospace
Before 9:45 a.m. at the open, whether the prior day’s big-loss stocks can quickly recover is an auxiliary judgment signal for how the sector is repairing

Today: pre-market surge beyond expectations
None

Full Review of Consecutive Limit-Up Stocks:
6 boards: Tianjin Pharmaceutical (innovative drugs)
2 boards: Chongqing Zhiyu Holding (pharmaceuticals), Xinneng Taishan (power), Huiyuan Communications (optical communications)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Turning-Point Analysis:
Limit-up counts are flat in the extreme low range, consecutive-board stocks are flat in the extreme low range. Rejection rate decreases. 20cm limit-ups increase sharply. Limit-down counts increase significantly in the high-end range. The ratio of total limit-up turnover / total market turnover is 0.23, in the low-end range. From the data observation compared with yesterday, the first clear change is the significant increase in limit-downs, indicating that as the market continues to diverge and fall, the “losing money” effect grows and the short-selling momentum accelerates. Second, 20cm limit-ups increase sharply, indicating that in the short term, funds have switched to flexible stocks for arbitrage or to hold-and-bond. The market’s capital preferences have changed. At this stage, it’s in a “chaotic cycle” range-bound trial-and-error period.
**Sentiment temperature: sentiment -10, the extreme point below freezing

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Recent strong sectors. The strongest sector of the day. Intraday identification of stocks within the sector:

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Recent sector-effect timeline review:

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II. Capital Analysis:

“Money-losing” effect -
Sectors: severe money-losing effect. It is distributed in different directions such as chemical industry, solar PV, power, batteries, etc., representing a market-wide “broad selloff” environment where most stocks fall.
Positions and structure: severe money-losing effect, distributed across different structures, represented by firms such as Sinchao Holdings, Sincong Design, and Shengyang Shares, etc.

“Money-making” effect -
Sectors: concentrated in various sub-branches of AI hardware—optical communications—representing a rotation driven by sector-positive news and the “capital siphoning” effect.
Positions and structure: concentrated in trend structures, represented by Dexele (德科立), Tengjing Technology (腾景科技), and Hengtong Optoelectronics (亨通光电), etc.

Summary of fund flow -
Quant funds continue to engage in mutual tug-of-war, entering a “white-knuckle battle” phase. As they gamble on fear profit-taking, it leads to a broad selloff. Meanwhile, quant funds in the optical communications sector, under good news, rushed up and created the siphoning effect. This shows typical quant behavior of both “pushing up and pushing down,” resulting in an intraday two-pole divergence. In this stage, volatility is extremely high and randomness is large. Continue waiting for a signal of sustained capital intervention into a sector or a signal that big money has entered.

III. Sector Analysis:
Sectors or concepts that continue to show a benign trend structure today: fiber/optical communications/OCS
The above sectors or concepts represent where the recent “money-making” effect is located and where capital has been recently more involved, and can be used as a directional reference for stock-picking in an ultra-short-term model.

Pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs) -
In the first stage of the trend cycle.
The first stage is led by Tianjin Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, with their smaller followers trailing behind.

Core of the high-position trend: Wanbangde. Continue choosing to avoid abnormal volatility and play the range-fluctuation approach.
Board-at-the-same-level (consecutive boards by position): Tianjin Pharmaceutical. It breaks the height limit suppression of Minovo Pharmaceuticals’ consecutive-boards. In the next trading day, it faces suppression by the anomaly line. It is also constrained by the previous consecutive-board height “dragon” Huadian Liaoneng’s 8-board height suppression. The expectation is that it is likely to break the board. As for what happens next—whether it will continue as a bond-and-hold group or follow the sector’s rhythm—needs further observation.
Small-capacity trend: Kelerin. It has entered a dispute and adjustment stage, and in the past, when speculating on the pharmaceuticals sector, capacity does not matter. The probability that the continuous weakness ends is possible.
Core of the prior trend: Minovo Pharmaceuticals. The logic is a re-evaluation of the value of weight-loss drugs. It leans toward an independent trend. It is now in range-bound consolidation, so expectations are hard to judge.
Mid-position trends: Shuanglu Pharma, Zhaoyan New Drugs, Lianhuan Pharma, Oncolin, Dongcheng Pharma, and Asia-Pacific Pharma, etc. Among them, Shuanglu Pharma, as a small follower of Wanbangde, is relatively strong. If the sector’s range-bound trend supports alternate rotation, there is a possibility of that; otherwise, it ends alongside the sector.
Elastic trend names: Haitai Xinguang, Shutaishen, Chengda Pharma, Kexing Pharmaceutical, Sansheng Guojian, Warner Pharma Factory, and Yuandong Bio, etc. Among them, Haitai Xinguang is the strongest elastic trend stock. If the sector’s range-bound trend supports alternate rotation, there is a possibility; otherwise, it ends alongside the sector.

Today’s path of how the pharmaceuticals market is unfolding:
At the open, Tianjin Pharmaceutical秒板, Chongqing Zhiyu Holding follows and boards. The trend core Wanbangde opens low and then rallies to avoid the abnormal volatility. The old core Minovo Pharmaceuticals shakes and strengthens. Shuanglu Pharma, Haitai Xinguang, Sansheng Guojian, etc. shake and strengthen as well. Pay attention: with the opening index trending downward, funds switch to the defensive/hedging side of pharmaceuticals. However, the sector once again shows frequent “switching and alternating rotation” upward.

How should the pharmaceuticals sector be viewed at this stage?
First, the pharmaceuticals sector is a contrarian-index sentiment-cycle sector, and it also has a defensive/hedging attribute. In the recent continuous performance, only a few core trend stocks in the front ranks show both downside resistance and active behavior. To a certain extent, it can be seen as a “bonding behavior” under a weak market.

Second, the pharmaceuticals sector was born out of the power sector cycle. Given the height level of the power sector, it can be treated as a follow-on “power-sector secondary theme” judgment. This implies the cycle’s continuity might be shorter. At this stage, it has clearly shown the same later-cycle market characteristics as power: low-position parts rotate to maintain hot-money effects; this in turn pushes up the high-position bonding trade. In the mid-position, elimination and differentiation occur with extreme negative feedback (Lianhuan Pharma). The sector index moves down and separates from the front-rank stocks.

In summary, because the pharmaceuticals sector was born in the power cycle and shows contrarian-index sentiment and bonding/rotation-related market characteristics like power, it should be treated as a power follow-through theme. It’s hard to “break through and survive” across the separation. Lower the expectations for the sector and consider a strategy of “fight and retreat” for now.

Commercial Aerospace -
In the first stage of the trial-and-error cycle.
The first stage is led by Shenjian Shares and Zengsheng Technology, with other smaller followers trailing behind.

In the pre-open stage, Zengsheng Technology and Xibucai Materials and Tongyu Communications had slightly higher opens, with Shenjian Shares opening flat. There was capital trying to repair the sector, but after the open it was suppressed by the index and sentiment selloff pressure. Also, the optical communications direction competed for capital liquidity. It then shook and weakened, further diverging into consolidation and a selloff.

Today, commercial aerospace funds chose Tongyu Communications in the low positions, instead of choosing Zengsheng Technology (a relatively more core name) or Shenjian Shares, which has been relatively downside-resistant in the past two days. This indicates it is not playing mid-to-high-position bonding, but rather rotation arbitrage intent. Second, during the day, some capital returned to Zengsheng Technology and Tainyin Electric. Combined with Tongyu Communications, it shows that funds in recent times are still inclined toward the SpaceX concept.

No matter what, since the core names with front-rank identifiability can’t maintain sideways consolidation and instead present a “supplemental selloff” structure, even if commercial aerospace has strong expectations for rotation, the odds are that in the next phase it will still mostly be alternate-rotation arbitrage. Participation will be harder, so wait for the next node of capital returning in and then consider based on the strength.

Artificial Intelligence (Compute Power, Chips) -
In the thirteenth stage of the trend cycle.
The first stage is led by Haili Shares and Shunchong Technology, with small followers such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech trailing behind.
The second stage is led by Haili Shares and Dongxin Shares, with small followers such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech trailing behind.
The third stage is led by Shunchong Technology, Husheng Tiancheng, and Invicta, with small followers such as Feilong Shares trailing behind.
The fourth stage is led by Husheng Tiancheng, with small followers trailing behind.
The fifth stage is led by Cambricon and Hygon Information, with small followers trailing behind.
The sixth stage is led by Husheng Tiancheng, with small followers trailing behind.
The seventh stage has no leading core; local rotation.
The eighth stage is led by Industrial Fu? (Foxconn) and Winshare Technology, with small followers trailing behind.
The ninth stage has no leading core; the core stocks of each branch alternate rising.
The tenth stage is led by Demingli, Shanan Chips, Jiangbo Long, and Inspur? (中际旭创) plus Winshare Technology; with small followers trailing behind.
The eleventh stage is led by BlueFocus, with 360 and People’s Vision China trailing behind.
The twelfth stage features alternate rotation upward trial-and-error behavior.
The thirteenth stage is led by Tongfu Microelectronics and Hygon Information, with small followers trailing behind.
The fourteenth stage is led by Changfei Optic Fiber, with small followers such as Hengtong Optoelectronics and Hangdian Shares trailing behind.

Q board trend core: Feilihu, Pingan Electric, Sinoma Technology, Honghe Technology; in the adjustment stage, short-term expectations can’t be judged, but logic is for the mid-to-long term.
M9 resin material: Dongcai Technology, enters the adjustment stage; short-term expectations can’t be judged; mid-to-long-term logic.
Copper foil trend core: Tongguan Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology; in the adjustment stage; short-term expectations can’t be judged; mid-to-long-term logic.
PCB orthogonal backplane trend core: Shenghong Technology, Hudi Electric, Shenzhen Nan Circuit, etc.; in the adjustment stage; short-term expectations can’t be judged; mid-to-long-term logic.
Storage chip trend core: Jiangbolong, Shanan Chips, Demingli, BOWE Storage, Zhaojir Innovations, etc.; entering a deep consolidation stage. As this year’s earnings are gradually released, it will likely move in a wave-like upward trend; mid-to-long-term logic.
Optical communication trend core: Inspur? (中际旭创), New H3 (新易盛), Dongshan Precision, and Liantek; Tianfu Communication enters the adjustment stage; short-term expectations can’t be judged; mid-to-long-term logic.
PCB trend core: Nanya New Materials, Jinan Guoji, CCL price increases; short-term expectations can’t be judged; mid-to-long-term logic
OCS optical switching trend core: Tengjing Technology, Guoxing? (光库科技), Deke Li, Juguang Technology; temporarily a range-bound structural trend judgment.
CW optical chip trend core: Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin; breaking trend channel consolidation upward; mid-to-long-term logic.
Optical communication indium phosphide trend core: Yunnan Germanium, indium phosphide substrate raw materials; a volatile trend structure; mid-to-long-term logic.
Optical communication spin wafer core: Zhongrun Optics; Faraday rotation plate capacity is limited and supply-demand imbalance exists; in the short term, it is temporarily a range-bound upward trend.
Domestic compute power trend core: Ovid, temporarily in a range-bound consolidation structure; short-term expectations can’t be judged.
Fiber trend core: Hangdian Shares, Changfei Optic Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnect. As the most resilient and active branch on the technology line, front-rank stocks have already had large gains—clear “known” logic for those moves. It leans toward a bonding behavior, and it’s hard to judge the top and bottom expectations. It belongs to a stage where holders manage positions with profit strategy. If you haven’t participated before, it’s mainly a “watching from the sidelines” situation, or you’d have to be bold to participate.

Today’s unfolding path of the technology line:

In the pre-open stage, optical communications moved noticeably. Stimulated by a positive cue from the overseas US stock lumentum hitting a historical high, there were higher-than-usual opens across optical chips (Yuanjie Technology, Yinding? (永鼎股份), Changguang Huaxin, etc.), fiber (Changfei Optic Fiber, Hangdian Shares, Hengtong Optoelectronics, etc.), OCS (Guangku Technology, Deke Li, Tengjing Technology, etc.), and optical modules (Tianfu Communication, New H3, Inspur? (中际旭创), etc.). All optical communications sub-branches opened high together.

After the open, optical chips, fiber, OCS, optical modules, and other groups all consolidated and strengthened together. The strongest leader was the OCS concept. Several trend core names, Deke Li, Tengjing Technology, and Guanggk? (光库科技), strongly surged into a new highs structure, even pulling up back-row optical Xun Technology and Saimicro Electronics to strengthen. The optical fiber branch, which has also been relatively downside-resistant, strengthened as well. However, the leading core switched again from Hangdian Shares back to Changfei Optic Fiber. During the day, due to the index and sentiment continuing to sell off, optical communications saw pullbacks across the board to different degrees beyond just the OCS concept—optical fiber, optical chips, and optical modules all pulled back to varying extents.

Although today the technology line’s optical communications direction strengthened beyond expectations—mainly due to overseas positive cues—quant funds also helped push up and suppressed other sectors through a siphoning effect. Originally, the technology line as a theme with positive correlation to the index should track with the index. Today, it clearly shows a back-to-front mismatch relationship: it’s diverged from the index. This means the optical communications direction later has a high chance of “catching down” with a compensating selloff and pullback.

In any case, in recent times when the broader index has adjusted sharply, the entire technology line can still present a range-bound consolidation structure. This means downside room for the technology line is limited. Second, the parts that are relatively downside-resistant are mainly the overseas-chain optical communications directions. In short, before the index has a turnaround expectation, it’s still range-bound grinding down until big funds enter—only then is there a chance for a bigger move.

**IV. Index and Market Outlook:

**As shown in the chart, on Friday the large market index opened slightly higher and then continued to fall in consolidation. This still fits the judgment that it follows the market’s self-driven run track and continues the “supplemental selloff” behavior. A signal worth paying attention to on the board is Xinghui Shancai’s proactive breakout above the abnormality line into monitoring. This implies two possibilities going forward: 1) In the short term, the possibility of capital continuing to bond up strengthens. After all, recently whether it’s power, pharmaceuticals, or fiber, they have all shown a tendency toward bonding behavior. Focus on Wanbangde, Tianjin Pharmaceutical, and Haitai Xinguang to see whether they dare to follow and enter monitoring with proactive behavior. 2) Market capital’s aesthetics shift toward “elastic stocks” becomes more likely. Besides Xinghui Shancai getting into monitoring after completing 3 boards, there are also weak elastic stocks making limit-ups—8 of them such as Haitai Xinneng, Huiyu Zhipharmaceutical, Sansheng Guojian, etc.—with recent strength higher than many main-board names.

What is most important on Friday: considering the outlook for the next phase of the market?

First, analyze market volume/turnover. Today seems like the market shrank to 1.65 trillion, reaching the “extreme” volume range of 1.8 trillion mentioned in the recap. In fact, on Friday, Northbound funds paused trading. Based on the recent Northbound funds daily traded value of 2–2.4 trillion, Friday’s actual market turnover should be 1.85–1.9 trillion. It didn’t reach the extreme volume range, meaning it can enter the ultra-short-term dip-buying game point. At the same time, this also implies Friday’s continuation of the selloff shook out some fear-based funds. Next Tuesday is also a holiday period where Northbound funds pause trading. With no additional capital entering, the likelihood of the market continuing weak rotation remains relatively high.

Second, analyze from the sentiment perspective. In recent times, comparing with the super-short sentiment temperature stage of 3.13–3.17, the super-short sentiment temperature has stayed below 40 in a weak rotation regime. Thursday was the freezing-point node. After continuous weakness, super-short sentiment temperature is very likely to continue into the “second freezing point” after two freezing points. In reality, Friday’s board was worse than expected, as shown in the chart: it directly broke through the freezing point down to an extreme point below the sentiment “freezing” level. It can be compared to 3.20, which corresponds to the narrative above: after the freezing point, the selloff continued and shook out some fear-based funds, increasing short-selling momentum and resulting in extreme sentiment. Put simply, it’s like the people who fell off the boat and are shivering in the water, preparing to swim back to shore—yet they’re getting stepped on by more people and pressed under the water.

Based on the volume and sentiment described, it’s not ruled out that Tuesday will continue the extreme scenario and end with another leg of selling. If there is no major external negative catalyst, the index and sentiment have limited downside room. In any case, after accelerated panic selloffs, in desperation it’s often easier to rebound. The closer you compress the spring, the more likely a rebound comes. In the short term, the “from short to long” node is more likely.

Pre-market Thinking for Tomorrow:
Based on the above analysis, on next Tuesday’s board there are two expectations: an extreme case where the selloff continues and it shakes out all panic holders, or a weak rotation and range-bound consolidation scenario. The corresponding setups are either sentiment second time going to the extreme below-freezing node or another freezing-point node. No matter which, these are ultra-short-term “setup for a bounce” gaming nodes. Note: if the scenario continues with extreme negative feedback and sentiment buy points are shifted to the late session, consider in the late hours. If it continues with a weak rotation and freezing point, intraday can be used for gaming. However, the dip-buying direction has some randomness and/or predictability risk. You can consider the technology line with index resonance (domestic compute power, chips, semiconductors), oversold power sector, commercial aerospace with strong rotation expectations, and lithium batteries.

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