Just now, Iran launched precision-guided missiles! Trump says an agreement framework has been formed with Iran! Thousands of US troops plan to arrive in the Middle East on the 27th! Oil prices plummet over 10%

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client

Source: Futures Daily

Good morning! Let’s start with important news.

Iran Claims to Have Launched “Real Commitment-4” 78th Military Operation

According to CCTV, on the 24th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement saying that during the 78th round of “Real Commitment-4” military operations, Iran launched strikes against multiple locations in Israel and some U.S. military bases in the region.

The statement said that this operation used various types of missiles and attack drones to target Eilat, Dimona, and northern Tel Aviv, among others, and also involved some U.S. military bases. Iran stated that the strikes were carried out with precision-guided missiles and drones.

U.S. Officials Reveal Thousands of Marines Planned to Arrive in Middle East on the 27th

According to CCTV, on March 23rd, two U.S. officials revealed that thousands of U.S. Marines are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East on the 27th. This date coincides with the deadline set by U.S. President Trump for reopening the Strait of Hormuz with Iran.

The U.S. Department of Defense has also ordered another Marine unit to deploy within weeks.

Trump Says Agreement with Iran Has Been Reached

According to Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media, President Trump said on the 23rd that the U.S. has had “strong” talks with Iran and has reached key points of an agreement.

Trump stated that the U.S. engaged in dialogue with Iranian leadership, but not with Iran’s Supreme Leader. The talks were conducted by U.S. Special Envoy Witkov and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner.

Trump said that a phone call between the U.S. and Iran might occur on the 23rd. If an agreement is reached, it would be a “great start” for Iran and the region.

Regarding Iran’s denial of talks with the U.S., Trump said the U.S. has destroyed much of Iran’s infrastructure, making it difficult for Iran to access information.

Netanyahu Says Will Continue Airstrikes on Iran

According to Xinhua, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video speech on the evening of the 23rd that U.S. President Trump told him that “war goals” against Iran could be achieved through “reaching an agreement.” Netanyahu also said Israel will “continue airstrikes against Iran and Lebanon.”

In his speech, Netanyahu mentioned that Trump called him that day, indicating that the U.S. and Israel could leverage “significant achievements” to realize “war objectives” through an “agreement,” which would “effectively protect core U.S.-Israel interests.”

Netanyahu stated he will “defend Israel’s fundamental interests under any circumstances”; Israel will destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and severely damage Hezbollah in Lebanon.

He also revealed that Israel recently “eliminated” two Iranian nuclear scientists.

Sources: Negotiation Fake News Aimed at Creating Conditions for Assassinating Iranian Parliament Speaker

According to CCTV, citing Iranian sources on March 23rd, a source said that the so-called negotiations between Iran’s Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and the U.S. are completely false. One purpose of fabricating this fake news is to create conditions for the assassination of Kalibaf.

The source said that the fabrication also aims to slander Kalibaf, cause division within Iran, and incite public sentiment.

The source stated that Iranian officials unanimously believe that the fight will continue until Iran achieves its goals and the aggressors repent.

International Oil Prices Drop Significantly on the 23rd

Affected by differing statements regarding U.S.-Iran talks, international crude oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations on the 23rd.

In the morning, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude futures in London briefly exceeded $113 per barrel. Later, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran had conducted “very good and productive” talks over the past two days, and the U.S. would “delay 5 days” attacking Iranian power plants. This caused oil prices to plummet over 10%, breaking below $100 per barrel.

However, Iran denied any contact with the U.S., reigniting market tension. Oil prices recovered to around $105 per barrel, with a decline of about 6%. In the afternoon, prices weakened again, falling to around $101 per barrel.

By the close, NYMEX May light crude fell $10.10 to $88.13 per barrel, down 10.28%; London Brent crude for May delivery dropped $12.25 to $99.94 per barrel, down 10.92%.

How Will the Oil Market Evolve Amid Geopolitical Storms?

With ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflicts and tense Strait of Hormuz situation, the international oil market is highly volatile. Prices surge, supply disruptions occur, and downstream industries face pressure. Where will this conflict lead the oil market?

Yang An, head of Petrochemical Research at Haitong Futures, told Futures Daily that the core focus this week is the development of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Trump demands Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on power plants, while Iran responds strongly, threatening to destroy facilities if damaged. No signs of easing, with even risks of escalation. The U.S. also reports possible ground attacks on Iran’s largest oil export base, Kharg Island, which accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. An attack there could cause oil prices to spiral.

Gao Zhao, head of Petrochemical Group at Chuangyuan Futures, said the conflict has shifted targets from military facilities to infrastructure. Since early March, the average daily shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been only a handful of vessels, with risks of oil supply disruption materializing. Iran’s retaliatory attacks could further exacerbate long-term supply chain disruptions.

Monitoring supply and demand, market changes are heavily influencing oil prices.

Yang An noted that supply-side risks are high for most oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, since March 1, only 21 fully loaded oil tankers have left the Persian Gulf, with only 4 non-Iranian ships. Gulf oil producers face storage issues and lack ballast ships, forcing shutdowns of many oil production facilities. If the situation doesn’t improve, supply disruptions could reach 11.5 million barrels per day in late March, remaining at that level in April.

CITIC Futures analyst Dong Dandan highlighted three key supply-side changes: first, targeted strikes on energy infrastructure—Israel attacking Iranian gas fields, Iran retaliating against oil and gas fields in multiple countries, Qatar’s 17% LNG liquefaction capacity damaged long-term, with 3-5 years needed for recovery; second, Gulf countries increasing production cuts—excluding Iran, Gulf states cut 8.2 million barrels per day; third, the U.S. easing sanctions on Iran’s maritime oil exports, adding 140 million barrels of short-term supply.

“Many Gulf countries are forced to cut production preemptively due to storage issues. Even with large-scale stock releases by IEA and U.S. sanctions relief, these measures can’t offset the supply gap caused by Strait of Hormuz disruptions,” Gao Zhao added.

On the demand and market transmission side, rising oil prices are affecting end-users. Dong Dandan said demand destruction is evident, with some countries’ gas stations running out of fuel. U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices have surged, with diesel averaging $5.044 per gallon. Countries with limited refining capacity and scarce resources, like in Africa and Southeast Asia, face severe fuel shortages. U.S. inflation expectations are slowing rate cuts, impacting capital markets.

Gao Zhao also noted that rising oil prices increase global inflation expectations, squeezing the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. Global monetary policy may shift toward tightening. Previously benefitting from easing expectations, metals and stock markets have weakened, with liquidity expectations reversing and risk appetite declining. Despite this, demand feedback from the oil and gas industry has not yet appeared; supply disruptions remain the main pricing driver, with overall sector prices continuing upward.

Looking ahead, Yang An believes that the risk of escalation in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict persists. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, supply disruptions will dominate the market, and oil prices could surge further. Key factors to watch include U.S. military actions and the reopening of the Strait.

Gao Zhao states that current oil prices are entirely driven by geopolitical conflicts. As the conflict persists, prices are likely to continue rising, supporting the oil and gas sector and exerting downward pressure on equities and metals. Even if the Strait reopens, full recovery of supply will take over a month due to infrastructure repair delays, making short-term price declines unlikely. Future focus should be on the progress of Strait reopening, Fed policy statements, and further strategic reserves releases.