Barclays expects the USD/HKD exchange rate to consolidate above 7.82

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-24T13:14:01+00:00

Barclays expects the USD/HKD exchange rate to remain above 7.82 in the near term and move toward the middle of the 7.75-7.85 range later this year. Despite ample liquidity, the market has already priced in expectations of Fed easing, and HKD demand may strengthen due to increased dividend payments. Near-term upside risk factors include improvement in US-China relations and resolution of the Iran conflict.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-24 13:14:01

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Investing.com - Barclays expects that, influenced by the overall trend of the US dollar, the USD/HKD exchange rate will consolidate above 7.82 in the short term, then move toward the middle of the 7.75-7.85 trading range later this year.

The bank states that although overall liquidity conditions remain loose this year, the increase in Middle East conflicts and initial public offerings has given momentum to arbitrage trading positions. The market has already priced in the Federal Reserve’s easing policy expectations, which will further support the Hong Kong dollar in the future.

Barclays forecasts that by the end of the second quarter, the USD/HKD exchange rate will return to the middle of the 7.75-7.85 range. The bank expects that from June to August, Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong will pay dividends, which will generate strong demand for the Hong Kong dollar.

Short-term upside risks for the Hong Kong dollar may come from concentrated stock fund inflows driven by risk appetite sentiment. Barclays highlights two potential catalysts: a quick resolution of the Iran conflict or an improvement in US-China relations.

The Hong Kong dollar operates under a linked exchange rate system, with a guaranteed trading band of 7.75 to 7.85 against the US dollar.

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