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"War and geopolitical tension is rising, gold will go up."
In reality, it's not that simple.
The so-called safe-haven is actually down 24% from its high, right since the US-Israel attack on Iran. Let me break it down for you.
The market is a forward-looking machine. The same way you buy a stock for its future potential, you buy gold because you expect conflict to arise.
Geopolitical fragmentation has been building since Russia-Ukraine in 2022, and that's exactly when gold rallied 240% into its high. Everyone had already bought the rumor.
So when the war actually broke out, it was already priced in. People sold the news.
On top of that, geopolitical uncertainty triggers a chain reaction, especially for investment managers, to sell and convert to cash, pushing prices down further.