#分享预测赢1000GT What Would Happen to Bitcoin If Oil Prices Surged to $180 Per Barrel?

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the US stock market and gold since the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East on February 28, highlighting its resilience amid the year's most significant geopolitical shock. However, if oil prices spike to $180/barrel, bitcoin's rally could face a severe test, a scenario predicted by some Saudi officials should Middle East supply disruptions extend beyond April.

Key Points: If the oil market shock persists, overall US inflation could rise to 5%, reducing the probability of rate cuts in 2026. Under such macroeconomic headwinds, bitcoin's price could potentially drop to $51,000 in the short term.

Surging Oil Prices Could Double Inflation and Pressure Bitcoin
As of Friday, Brent crude was trading at approximately $105/barrel, up roughly 50% since the US-Iran conflict erupted.
According to Kpler data, Iranian oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz have declined from 25.13 million barrels/day in February to 9.71 million barrels/day in mid-March. Strait of Hormuz oil transit data.

Energy data firm Vortexa anticipates transits could plummet to 7.5 million barrels, underscoring the severity of Middle East supply disruptions, with industry expectations for a further 70% increase in oil prices.
A 2023 Federal Reserve study indicated that each 10% increase in crude prices can raise US CPI by approximately 0.35-0.40 percentage points. By this calculation, sustained oil price increases could drive overall inflation higher by 2.5-2.8 percentage points, meaning CPI would significantly exceed the current 2.4% and further diverge from the Fed's 2% target.

Markets have reacted to this risk. Rate-cut expectations are turning hawkish, with markets no longer pricing in a second rate cut in 2026, and the first rate cut probability pushed to October 2027.
High-rate environments typically increased borrowing costs, tighten liquidity, and weaken investor preference for risk assets like bitcoin and stocks. Any conflict resolution signals could quickly terminate oil price gains.
Historically, similar sharp rallies are typically short-lived, with prices ultimately reverting to the mean, and bitcoin also warming as market panic dissipates.

Oil Shock Increases Probability of Bitcoin Dropping to $51,000
As bitcoin's trend weakens, the $180 oil price warning emerges.
BTC has retreated 9.5% from its recent local high of $76,000, breaking below $70,000 by Thursday. This pullback has formed a falling flag pattern, with downside targets calculated at $51,000-$52,000. Bitcoin's pullback has also coincided with Michael Saylor's Strategy ceasing BTC purchases through STRC. The firm paused buying this week, after having accumulated 22,337 and 17,994 bitcoins in the weeks ending March 15 and earlier.
This point is particularly critical, as Strategy had previously been absorbing bitcoin supply at a pace equivalent to several weeks of global mining output. With macroeconomic risks intensifying, the absence of the primary demand driver increases downside pressure on the market.
CB premium turning negative reflects weak US demand accompanying the ongoing oil supply shock.