Index Bottom Space Judgment, Revolving Around Power Entanglement! (2026.03.24 Review)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index +1.78%, the ChiNext Index +0.50%, the STAR Market 50 Index +2.33%, total market turnover 20,828 billion yuan, 5,136 stocks rose, 329 stocks fell, the total market volume compared to yesterday decreased by 349 billion yuan.

Overall Market Sentiment: Broad rally across the board
Number of stocks hitting the daily limit: 83 (yesterday: 28)
Number of stocks with 20-cent limit-ups: 5 (yesterday: 3)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 6 (yesterday: 5)
Number of limit-down stocks: 1 (yesterday: 71)
Today’s break rate: 21.7% (yesterday: 34.8%)
Success rate of first limit-up breakthrough: 17.4% (yesterday: 9.5%)

Today’s major stocks with large volume
None
Before 9:45 AM, whether previous large-volume stocks can quickly recover is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s unexpectedly high-volume bidding stocks
Shaoneng Co., Ltd.

Global continuous limit-up stocks overview:
7-limit: Huadian Liaoning Power (Electric Power)
3-limit: Zhongli Group (Photovoltaic Storage)
2-limit: Liaoning Energy (Electric Power, Coal), Zhejiang New Energy (Electric Power), Snow浪 Environmental (Reorganization Agreement), Tuori New Energy (Photovoltaic)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Significant increase in limit-up stocks in mid-to-high price range, while continuous limit-up stocks remain stable in low-price range, break rate decreases, limit-down stocks sharply reduce in low-price range.
The proportion of total limit-up transaction volume to market total: 0.40, median range.
Compared to yesterday, the most noticeable change is a sharp increase in limit-up stocks and a sharp decrease in limit-down stocks, indicating diminishing loss effects and emotional recovery. Sector effects and continuous limit-up stocks have not increased, suggesting that profit-making effects are not concentrated. Currently, it is a chaotic trial-and-error phase.

Sentiment temperature: Moderate optimism at 60

Tomorrow’s ultra-short-term market sentiment anchor stocks:
Huadian Energy, Huadian Liaoning Power, Yunnan Energy Holdings
Before 9:45 AM, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchoring of these stocks will signal the ultra-short-term market sentiment.

Recently strong sectors, the strongest sector of the day, intra-day identifiable stocks overview:

Recent sector effect timeline overview:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss effect -
No obvious loss effect in sectors; some distribution in oil, gas, chemicals, etc., reflecting geopolitical-related sector divergence weakening.
Position and structure: No obvious loss effect; some distribution in different structures, represented by Yuntianhua, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, etc.

Profit effect -
Distributed across sectors like electric power, photovoltaic storage, lithium batteries, AI hardware, military industry, indicating a broad market rally with rotation.
Position and structure: Distributed in different structures, represented by Huadian Liaoning Power, Nanya New Materials, Great Wall Military Industry, etc.

Capital flow summary:
Some funds continue to support AI and electric power for consolidation and maintenance of profit effects, while most are bottom-fishing in recently oversold sectors. The market does not show concentrated capital attacking a single sector. It is a phase of oversold rebound trial-and-error. Continue to observe clear capital flow directions.

III. Sector Analysis:
Today, sectors or concepts showing a benign trend structure: local electric power.
These sectors or concepts represent recent profit effects and high recent capital involvement, serving as reference directions for ultra-short-term stock selection.

AI Electric Power (Electric Power, Computing Power Collaboration) -
In the fourth stage of trend cycle.
Stage 1 led by China Western Electric, followed by Sanbian Technology, Baobian Electric.
Stage 2 led by China Western Electric, Dongfang Electric, followed by Baobian Electric, Tebian Electric.
Stage 3 alternates leadership among China Energy Construction, GCL New Energy, Jinkai New Energy, Han Cable, with smaller stocks following.
Stage 4 alternates leadership among Shun Na Co., Jinkai New Energy, Huadian Energy, with various laggards rotating in.

Key high-core stocks: Yunnan Energy Holdings, as the first to open high in this wave of AI electric power, with secondary wave expectations. Regulatory sentiment suppression limits further gains, maintaining a small positive oscillation trend.

Core anti-dip stocks: Jinkai New Energy, Huadian Energy, with Jinkai actively attacking and re-approaching trend lines, while Huadian Energy shows passive lift, currently in oscillation structure.

Limit-up position stocks: Huadian Liaoning Power, actively breaking through monitoring anomalies and challenging regulatory sentiment; if no lagging extreme negative feedback, still expected to have room for upward movement.

AI Electric Power trading path today:
During bidding, Xineng Taishan’s one-word limit-up exceeded expectations; Shaoneng Co. surged with high volume; Huadian Liaoning Power opened slightly below expectations; yesterday’s median anti-dip stock Dongfang New Energy opened below expectations, showing high-low switching and rotation signals.

After opening, Huadian Liaoning Power proactively broke through anomaly lines; Shaoneng quickly surged to cover; later, stocks like Hunan Development, Jicheng Electronics, Zhongnan Culture, Great Wall Electric all hit limit-up, seemingly showing strong sector effect. In reality, core anti-dip stocks Huadian Energy and Jinkai New Energy saw initial capital exit and sell-off signals, indicating high-low switching rotation signals rather than genuine strength. Capital shifted to lower levels for Huadian Liaoning Power’s rebound.

Subsequently, the index opened high and fell, with Huadian Energy and Jinkai New Energy oscillating downward; most limit-ups showed break signals. After market sentiment stabilized, Shaoneng recovered, Jinkai New Energy surged to limit-up again, anchoring the flow back into the sector. As the index strengthened, many stocks recovered or even pulled back to hit new highs.

How to view AI Electric Power now?
Apart from Huadian Liaoning Power’s continuous limit-up, high-level core stocks entered a range oscillation without leading. Capital is switching between high and low levels to sustain hot money effects, with frequent rotation. For example, yesterday’s strong Dongfang New Energy rotated into Shaoneng Co., today Shaoneng strengthened, and Dongfang New Energy adjusted, showing high randomness and mainly controlled by major funds.

Somewhat akin to a pre-shock adjustment phase of the second wave of commercial aerospace, where high levels saw alternating leadership among Western materials, Shunhao Co., Aerospace Electronics, etc., but AI Electric Power only has Jinkai New Energy relatively active, with less strength and leadership compared to previous aerospace cycles.

Similarly, it can be viewed as a Taiwan Strait (Fujian) cycle, with low-priced small stocks rotating continuously, pushing high-level sectors like Haixian Innovation, He Fu China, Pingtan Development into a grouping behavior. Huadian Liaoning Power is comparable to He Fu China’s main upward wave breaking anomaly lines, Yunnan Energy Holdings to Pingtan Development’s post-adjustment second wave. If low-level rotation effects are used to infer high-level grouping, then Yunnan Energy Holdings and Huadian Energy are less intense than Taiwan Strait (Fujian) sectors.

Therefore, current AI Electric Power can be seen as a superimposition of commercial aerospace + Taiwan Strait (Fujian) sector characteristics: high-level local grouping + range oscillation + low-level alternating rotation to sustain hot money effects. Regardless of the definition, funds are still entangled around AI Electric Power. As long as no extreme negative feedback occurs at high levels and no new sector emerges to compete for liquidity, the end is not expected soon.

Tomorrow’s key signals to observe for sector strength:

1. Whether the newly announced Liaoning Power supply hits a one-word limit-up;
2. Whether Huadian Liaoning Power’s limit-up stocks show lagging extreme negative feedback signals; continued strong attack is a plus;
3. Whether high-level capacity stocks like Jinkai New Energy or Huadian Energy continue to actively break new highs;
4. Yunnan Energy Holdings, as a stabilizer of confidence, should continue oscillating without extreme negative feedback. If positive signals appear, maintain bullish expectations.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th stage of trend cycle.
Stage 1 led by Haili Co., Chunzong Technology, followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Stage 2 led by Haili Co., Dongxin Co., followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Stage 3 led by Chunzong Technology, Huasheng Tiancai, Yingweike, with Feilong Co. following.
Stage 4 led by Huasheng Tiancai, with smaller stocks following.
Stage 5 led by Cambrian, Haiguang Information, with others following.
Stage 6 led by Huasheng Tiancai, with others following.
Stage 7 has no core leader, partial rotation.
Stage 8 led by Industrial Fuxian, Shenghong Technology, with others following.
Stage 9 has no core leader, with various branches alternating upward.
Stage 10 led by Demingli, Shannong Chip, Jiangbolong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology, with others following.
Stage 11 led by Blue Cursor, with 360 Security, Vision China, etc., following.
Stage 12 is an alternating rotation trial-and-error phase.
Stage 13 led by Tongfu Microelectronics, Haiguang Information, with others following.
Stage 14 led by Changfei Optical Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Co., etc., following.

Q-curve core trend stocks:
Philips Hua, Ping An Electric, Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology — in correction phase, short-term uncertain; medium-long term logic unclear.
M9 Resin Materials: Dongcai Technology — in correction phase, short-term uncertain; medium-long term logic unclear.
Copper Foil Trend Core: Tongguan Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology — in correction, short-term uncertain; medium-long term logic unclear.
PCB Orthogonal Backplane Trend Core: Shenghong Technology, Shudetong Co., Shennan Electric, etc., in correction; short-term uncertain.
Storage Chips Trend Core: GigaDevice, Jiangbolong, Shannong Xuchuang, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, etc., with performance gradually releasing, likely to trend upward in waves, medium-long term logic.
Optical Communication Trend Core: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Liante Technology, Tianfu Communication — in correction; short-term uncertain.
PCB Trend Core: Nanya New Materials, Jinan Guoji, CCL price hikes, previously following Shudetong, now oscillating upward.
OCS Optical Switch Trend Core: TENGJING Technology, Guangku Technology — temporarily oscillating upward in short term.
CW Optical Chip Trend Core: Yuanjie Technology — breaking through trend channel, oscillating upward, medium-long term logic.
Indium Phosphide Optical Communication Substrate Trend Core: Yunnan Geology — oscillating structure, medium-long term logic.
Computing Power Trend Core: Meili Cloud, driven by domestic computing power + electric power dual attributes, oscillating upward.
Optical Module Trend Core: Ruisikangda, driven by optical modules + electric power, oscillating upward.

Today’s tech sector path:
Affected by the overall surge of external tech sectors, during bidding, CPO, PCB, optical communication, chips, semiconductors, storage opened flat or slightly higher, then weakened with the index. Only TENGJING Technology, Guangku Technology, Nanya New Materials, Tongding Interconnection showed strength. After stabilization, funds flowed back, and tech sectors followed the index in oscillation and strength, forming an intra-day broad rally.

Most tech stocks are controlled by major players with independent trends; storage chips showed large rebounds after dips; other branches mainly show oversold rebounds and rotation. Overall, tech sectors correlate positively with the index, maintaining the view that the overall tech sector is in a range-bottoming phase, waiting for a reversal and resonance with the index upward.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown, today’s major index experienced a decline trend followed by a rebound. Will it follow the pattern shown in the 2-arrow chart on 2025.04.07 for a continuous rebound?

From a macro perspective, the geopolitical situation is not over, still in escalation. Today’s rebound is more driven by the US’s yellow-haired rhetoric. As everyone knows, the yellow-haired is unreliable, constantly changing, exemplified by the “TACO” strategy—“Threaten tough first, then compromise”—a typical pattern. Therefore, this rebound differs from the expected tariff event resolution in the 2-arrow chart, with ongoing uncertainties.

Market volume analysis shows that today’s index rose 1.78%, with over 5,000 stocks up, but market volume shrank by 340 billion yuan, indicating only a small portion of funds entered to push the large increase. This mismatch suggests that large funds remain cautious, not actively bottom-fishing, but some aggressive ultra-short funds are involved.

From a trend perspective, a unilateral trend is driven by the market’s own laws, unaffected by external forces. Today’s rebound is stimulated by external factors, not a natural correction after a bearish exhaustion. The market may temporarily stabilize but could decline again, so a continuous rebound is uncertain.

Since the index chose to fall and then rebound intraday, it’s not too pessimistic about further decline. The subjective view favors a scenario of a quick stabilization followed by a small secondary dip before a rebound. Whether a secondary dip occurs depends on the next market’s capacity to absorb funds; strong absorption indicates a small rebound, with a bottom space around 3800 points.

Pre-market thoughts for tomorrow:
From sentiment, after a continuous decline, the first broad rebound may continue with weak recovery or oscillation. Sector or stock rallies may see quick pullbacks. Do not chase high or buy on the right side. Without continued attack signals, tech stocks’ rebound lacks concentrated funds, and the probability of continued attack is low. Focus remains on electric power sector consolidation or related new energy sectors (batteries, photovoltaic storage) that may strengthen.

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