# A Desperate Bear Market, Yet a Glimmer of Hope

The former DeFi star Balancer has shut down, the DAO management platform Tally ceased operations, the highly anticipated BP "Big Truck" faced a rug pull, new coins list and continuously plummet, funding only flows to the payment track, and even in Rhythm's 10 flash news items, there's barely any crypto-related content......

After being in crypto for so many years, I'm experiencing the most despairing bear market for the first time. When BTC was at 15,000 last time, there were all sorts of narratives—Ethereum technology and Ponzi platforms (all eventually proven false). Now the market seems to have only "prediction markets" as a lifeline, yet that itself is "Beyond Crypto."

Around this time last year, I started understanding PerpDEX. I missed Hyperliquid, but was fortunate to catch Lighter. Looking back, luck trumped knowledge. My chips are still in hand—I sold 2x at the top and bought back 1.5x. Even if it drops below 1, I still have several times return overall. Compared to others' lamentations about their projects, I'm content.

In my research and understanding, PerpDEX is in its first phase. All previous exploration gave birth to Hyperliquid. If interested, check out my video on PerpDEX from last year.

The clumsy imitations of competitors are just trying to capture short-term track overflow dividends. Eventually, like CEX in 2017, it'll be survival of the fittest. There aren't many true Builders; I consider Lighter one of them, which is why I keep holding.

The critical inflection point for the next phase of PerpDEX is "RWA Perp," timing in the second half of this year. Nasdaq and NYSE's 7x24 hour operation will usher this track into a true "Perp prices everything" era. Currently, Hyperliquid (tradexyz) and Lighter are at the forefront.

Hyperliquid leans toward whale institutions, while Lighter targets retail. The outflow of retail during the bear market has made Lighter's journey tough, with data consistently declining. I've given the team many suggestions, but the coin price crash makes the core community, including myself, reluctant to discuss this project. Everyone is just enduring. However, I believe the arrival of a bull market will reverse this decline—it's just a matter of time.

The next bull market may concentrate in American projects. The passage of the "Clear Act" allows many "American entrepreneurs" to go all out. Whether they launch scams or build real products will blur, but institutional capital inflow will improve this frozen market and bring new narratives.

In any case, data shows stablecoins are beginning to increase supply again. Can spring be far away?