Layer Chick Prices Rise Sequentially, Restocking Shows Polarization: Large-Scale Farms "Charge Ahead" While Small Farmers "Wait and See" | Industry Updates

Caixin News, March 20 — (Reporter Zhang Chenjing) Currently, it is the peak season for spring layer hen restocking, with egg chicken hatchery prices rising nearly 15% month-on-month. Recent interviews with multiple industry sources reveal that, amid persistently low egg prices and farming profits in the red, spring restocking shows structural differentiation. Large-scale breeding enterprises maintain a normal restocking pace, while small and medium-sized farmers are generally cautious and hesitant, with low restocking intentions. Many industry insiders believe that the egg market will still face certain supply pressures within the next six months.

Latest data from Zhuochuang Information shows that in the third week of March, the average price of nationwide egg chicken hatcheries rose to 3.80 yuan per jin. There is a significant price difference across regions, with hatchery prices increasing by 14.46% compared to the same period last month and decreasing by 11.21% year-on-year.

Behind the rise in egg chicken hatchery prices, market demand has shown some differentiation. “Currently, most large-scale breeding enterprises are maintaining normal restocking plans. A few companies have slightly increased their restocking enthusiasm, but most small and medium-sized farms remain cautious and observant,” said Liu Xu, an egg analyst at Zhuochuang Information, in an interview with Caixin.

Xiaoming Co., Ltd. (300967.SZ) also confirms this trend through its February sales brief. The company sold 21.8877 million chickens, generating revenue of 64.2019 million yuan, with month-on-month changes of -4.35% and +9.57%, respectively. The average selling price of chickens was 2.93 yuan per bird, up 14% from January.

A company representative from Xiaoming told Caixin, “Our main clients are large-scale chicken farms. The overall supply and demand in the industry are still tightly balanced. Although restocking enthusiasm and hatchery prices slightly recovered in February, prices still face pressure. We expect demand to further recover in March.”

Small and medium-sized farmers are especially cautious under the current market conditions, mainly because nationwide egg chicken stock remains at relatively high levels historically, while feed raw material prices are rising. In March, profits from egg chicken farming are still slightly in the red, and the future trend of egg prices remains uncertain.

Recently, egg prices have slightly rebounded. Some egg traders told Caixin that egg prices are currently relatively stable. According to Mysteel, as of March 18, the average price of eggs in major production areas nationwide was 3.21 yuan per jin, up 0.17 yuan per jin from March 1, a 5.59% increase. Industry analysts believe that upcoming Qingming Festival preparations may boost egg prices, but this is unlikely to reverse the trend significantly without capacity recovery.

Regarding the market outlook, Liu Xu stated that based on previous hatchery sales, from March to June, the number of old hens culled nationwide may exceed the number of newly laying hens, leading to a decreasing stock. The stock may gradually reduce to around 1.32 billion hens. Demand in March is expected to recover somewhat, while in April and May, egg market demand may fluctuate slightly due to holidays. Overall, egg prices nationwide are likely to remain long-term in the range of 3.00-3.50 yuan per jin, with a possibility of rising again in mid to late August.