When Will the Current Healthy Correction in the A-Share Market End? Top 10 Brokers' Strategies Here

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The latest strategies and viewpoints from the top ten brokerages are now available, detailed as follows:

CITIC Securities: Key controversies regarding the impact of Middle East conflicts—answers will gradually emerge after April

Regarding the core disputes over the impact of Middle East conflicts, answers will be gradually clarified after April. The resolution of these key market issues will unfold throughout April. Until then, the market remains in a narrative debate phase, reflecting liquidity withdrawal characteristics. U.S. Treasury yields are still rising rapidly, with the 10-year yield jumping from 3.97% at the end of February to 4.39% now, the highest since August last year. From the current global market landscape, as risk aversion diminishes, countries are strengthening energy resource security and accelerating electrification—becoming new development trends. China’s competitive manufacturing industry is just beginning to shift towards pricing power and profit margins. From a trading logic perspective, rising prices and PPI rebound are ongoing signals. The only current concern is upstream prices’ difficulty in passing down. Midstream and upstream sectors have started raising prices, but downstream remains cautious, digesting inventories. Only over time, as commodity volatility subsides, downstream procurement will normalize. Whether prices can be maintained, profit margins expanded, and market share advantages translate into pricing power remains to be seen. Investors should remain patient, calmly handle stock fluctuations. April and May are critical decision periods. In the first three months, sector rotations driven mainly by narratives and gains/losses occurred. Even if trading didn’t lock in profits, it’s no big deal—active equity funds’ median return this year has already returned to 0.7%.

Firmly focus on re-evaluating China’s manufacturing pricing power and adjust positions accordingly. The current core holdings are industries with a share advantage in China, high costs of overseas capacity reallocation, and supply flexibility easily influenced by policies—namely new energy, chemicals, electrical equipment, and non-ferrous metals. Recent liquidity shocks have pushed valuations of many stocks into attractive zones, similar to the export-oriented stocks after April 7 last year, bringing significant expectations and undervaluation. Based on these core holdings, continue increasing exposure to undervalued factors, especially in insurance, brokerage, and power sectors. Considering short-term signals, price hikes remain the sharpest weapon, and PPI trading is increasingly likely to be the main theme for the year, with April and May as the decisive period. Several clues and structural opportunities to prioritize: 1) Chemical products with alternative raw materials/process routes under oil shocks (Chinese varieties often have higher coal content than overseas competitors), where rising crude oil prices create high spreads; 2) Stocks with significant Middle East/Western European capacity disruptions, potentially causing supply-demand gaps and price increases; 3) Substitutes affected by costs leading to price hikes, with demand growth driving supply-demand gaps; 4) Stocks already in an upward price channel, where rising costs provide opportunities for pass-through amid tight supply-demand balance.

Huaxi Securities: Allocate to banks and wait for more “stabilizing the market” policies

Huaxi Securities notes that most global stock markets declined this week, with A-shares and European markets leading the fall. On one hand, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, with significant unpredictability in oil prices and inflation trends, increasing the risk of stagflation. On the other hand, the Fed’s March meeting kept rates steady but issued hawkish signals, with the possibility of future rate hikes, raising concerns about dollar tightening. Under risk aversion, the A-share market retreated, with trading volumes shrinking, reflecting cooling investor sentiment amid rapid sector rotations. Structurally, defensive sectors like consumer staples and banks, as well as high-growth areas like storage and AI computing power, are relatively favored.

Market outlook: Focus on allocating to banks and wait for more “stabilizing the market” policies. The ongoing US-Iran conflict and delayed expectations of overseas rate cuts continue to suppress risk appetite globally. Compared to this, China’s policy environment is more certain, with regulators explicitly signaling “stabilizing the capital market.” Future policies such as “stabilization funds,” structural support tools, long-term funds entering the market, and counter-cyclical regulatory measures are worth期待. Meanwhile, imported inflation has limited impact on domestic monetary policy, and a loose liquidity environment will persist. Fiscal efforts will also help restore investor confidence.

HuaAn Securities: When will the current healthy correction end?

Ongoing risks from tariffs, US-Iran tensions, and hawkish Fed signals suggest the market will remain weak and volatile. Short-term, assets like banks, utilities, and those with price-raising catalysts such as chemicals, machinery, and storage are expected to outperform. Growth stocks remain the mid-term core theme but are currently in a correction phase. After this adjustment, the market may enter a second phase of profit-driven bull market, so this correction is considered healthy.

US-Iran tensions show no clear easing, and Trump’s postponement of his China visit indicates continued external disturbances in the short term. Inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices led the March FOMC to adopt a hawkish stance, with increased chances of rate hikes. External shocks persist. During this first healthy correction in the growth cycle, although short, the main sectors and representative stocks tend to experience a “decline → rebound → decline” pattern with wide fluctuations. The recent strong performance of growth and telecom sectors during the market downturn is part of this rebound phase. Further declines in key growth stocks and telecoms may occur, laying the foundation for a new rally.

Dongfang Securities: China still faces downward risk assessment and a shift from two extremes toward the middle

In the short term, global risk assessments are rising, with higher risk-free rates and lower risk appetite, and earnings expectations are being revised downward. Global capital markets face significant tests. However, domestically, there’s little need for excessive worry. Recent years show that the negative impact of geopolitical risks on China’s equity markets has diminished. The process of risk assessment moving from two extremes toward the middle continues.

Energy security and technological manufacturing intersect, with a strong focus on photovoltaic equipment. The main theme remains global energy security; from a style perspective, sectors like power equipment and machinery are favored. Further, PV equipment is relatively undervalued when considering profitability and valuation metrics.

China Galaxy Securities: Uncertainty remains over the duration and evolution of geopolitical conflicts

“Two changes” and “two constants”: The first change involves geopolitical shifts under Strait tensions, with US-Iran conflict escalation, expanding military targets to regional energy infrastructure, and ongoing spillover risks. The second change is the phase-specific tightening of global liquidity amid rising oil prices and inflation expectations, reducing easing expectations and pressuring risk assets. The constants include unchanged policy expectations—central banks emphasizing stability of financial markets—and a stable, improving long-term liquidity environment driven by long-term capital inflows and household wealth shifts, supporting the A-share market.

A-shares outlook: The duration and evolution of geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain, and short-term volatility in global risk assets is expected to persist. However, under domestic support, downside is limited, with the market likely to digest external pressures through oscillation and sector rotation. Key variables include oil prices, which influence inflation and energy demand, and sectors like coal, chemicals, and energy. Defensive assets such as financials, utilities, and transportation are also focal points. Technology sectors like power equipment, new energy, energy storage, semiconductors, and communications are also attractive. Valuations in consumer sectors are low, with some segments showing recovery potential—agriculture, food, household appliances, etc.

Industrial Securities: When will the market rally again?

Recent market adjustments mainly stem from concerns over economic stagflation and escalating conflicts, which may not be the final outcome of current tensions. In the short term, escalation could create opportunities for de-escalation, often when market sentiment is most pessimistic. Medium to long term, stagflation might be the most pessimistic scenario but not necessarily the baseline. The current market pricing reflects significant pessimism, laying a foundation for medium- and long-term recovery.

In terms of allocation, based on upward revisions of profit forecasts for 2026 since the start of the year, focus on sectors expected to perform well in the first quarter: AI hardware (consumer electronics, components, computing and communication equipment, electronic chemicals), software (gaming, digital media, IT services), advanced manufacturing and export chains (new energy—batteries, PV, wind power; military—navigation equipment; machinery—rail transit, specialized equipment, construction machinery; commercial vehicles; home appliance parts; medical services), cyclical price-increasing chains (non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, chemicals—rubber, building materials—glass fiber; shipping ports; gas), and consumer & financial sectors (agriculture, retail, jewelry, brokerage).

Zhongtai Securities: How to interpret the recent sharp decline in precious metals?

Recently, gold and crude oil prices have shown a strong inverse correlation: oil surged this week, while precious metals declined sharply. Typically, rising oil prices support gold via two channels: 1) increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions; 2) rising energy prices boosting inflation expectations, which enhances gold’s inflation hedge appeal. As a result, gold and oil often move together, especially when inflation expectations rise.

However, recent market behavior indicates a phase shift in gold pricing logic. After a sustained rise over the past year, gold’s role has shifted from a “safe-haven asset” to a “traded risk asset.” On one hand, global liquidity easing expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drove large gains. On the other hand, continuous capital inflows have made trading structures crowded, increasing gold’s sensitivity to marginal liquidity. Under this environment, gold is increasingly influenced by capital flows and trading structures rather than fundamentals.

In the short term, reduce exposure to conflict-driven sectors like shipping, ports, and coal chemicals. Long-term, focus on two main themes: 1) new energy and global manufacturing restructuring—demand for PV, energy storage, and power equipment is expected to grow; 2) geopolitical turbulence shifting global manufacturing toward “security-first,” raising demand for non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and high-end equipment, with systemic upward shifts in demand centers.

GF Securities: How will high oil prices impact the stock market?

Currently, A-shares remain resilient supported by policies, fundamentals, and liquidity, with short-term volatility. (1) The inflation impact of oil prices may be weaker than in 2007 and 2022 due to lower energy weightings in CPI, slowing US economy and employment, and limited short-term imported inflation in China. (2) The negative impact on US stocks may be moderate, with inflation driven by oil prices but less severe than in 2007 and 2022, possibly preventing rate hikes. (3) A-shares may remain relatively resilient in the short term, supported by active policies, ongoing economic and profit recovery, and continued liquidity easing domestically. Capital inflows from foreign and long-term institutional investors may slow short-term but sustain medium- to long-term inflows.

Sector allocation: Balanced positioning in high-quality tech, some cyclical, and undervalued dividend sectors. (1) Short-term outperformance expected in petrochemicals and energy-related sectors—history shows these tend to benefit from rapid oil price increases. (2) Tech hardware, AI, semiconductors, and related sectors may also perform well amid rising demand. (3) Maintain balanced allocation: sectors with upward policy and industry trends like new energy (AI power, energy storage), communications (AI hardware), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military (aerospace), and healthcare; also, undervalued sectors like coal, power, and banking.

Guojin Securities: The narrative of rising physical assets remains intact

This week, major global asset classes declined, seemingly due to demand concerns, but the core issue is the escalation of US-Iran conflict reversing the previous “weak dollar” narrative. Before the conflict, the dollar was weakening, capital flowed out of dollar assets, US stocks underperformed global markets, and commodities with higher per-ton value outperformed, highly sensitive to the dollar index. Countries with high beta to the dollar saw higher gains early in the year. Internally, US tech giants were overtaken by infrastructure and small/mid-cap stocks, with US financials losing some dominance. Post-conflict, the dollar index rebounded sharply, capital returned to the US, US stocks showed resilience, and dollar-sensitive markets declined more. Commodities with higher per-ton value, like copper and aluminum, fell less than gold. Recent US AI industry catalysts have led to Nasdaq outperforming Russell 2000. Within China, the tech supply chain also performed relatively better. While global stagflation and recession fears are visible, the real driver behind market performance may be the reallocation of dollar liquidity in financial assets.

The narrative of rising real assets remains valid. To see the true picture, we recommend: 1) Under global turmoil, energy security becomes critical, favoring primary energy over secondary energy—oil, shipping, coal, copper, aluminum, gold, rubber; 2) China’s manufacturing remains the global ballast, with real asset flows slower than financial flows, awaiting revaluation—power equipment, new energy, machinery, chemicals; 3) As negative factors reverse, seek structural opportunities in consumption—tourism, scenic spots, fermented flavor products, beer and spirits, pharmaceuticals, medical aesthetics.