Just now, the market experienced a massive shock! Breaking news from the US! When will the "bottom-finding time window" arrive?

As volatility intensifies, some positive news also emerges!

Over the past weekend, many market professionals called for increased attention to the risks of the Middle East conflict. This morning, volatility in the Asia-Pacific markets also noticeably increased. In the early trading session, most stocks in the A-shares market experienced significant declines, except for coal, photovoltaic, and some new energy stocks. The Korean stock market briefly hit the circuit breaker, and the Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 5% at one point. Precious metals like gold and silver also saw large drops, but the declines later narrowed.

There is also major news from the U.S. side. According to AXIOS, a U.S. official and an informed source revealed that after three weeks of war, the Trump administration has begun preliminary discussions on the next phase and potential peace negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid reviewed the performance of U.S. stocks after 30 major geopolitical events and found that the average low point of the S&P 500 usually occurs about three weeks after the shock. The market is currently approaching this time window, with the median maximum retracement during past events around -6%.

Positive news after sharp fluctuations

After the sharp declines in Japan and South Korea markets, the A-shares market also experienced increased volatility at opening. All three major indices of the A-shares fell over 2% at one point, with the Shanghai Composite losing the 3,900-point level. Leading decliners included sectors like nonferrous metals, computing hardware, and semiconductors, with over 5,200 stocks falling in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets. FTSE China A50 futures dropped by up to 2%. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3% intraday.

Green energy concept stocks repeatedly showed activity, with Li新能源 hitting the daily limit, China Datang LiaoNeng previously hitting the limit, and Oriental New Energy (rights protection) reaching the limit. Zhejiang New Energy and Yunnan Energy Holding also followed suit. Photovoltaic and energy storage stocks performed relatively resiliently. The coal sector was also active early on, with coke coal futures hitting the daily limit at one point, up about 11%.

Notably, after the rapid decline of stock indices, there was a small rebound. Meanwhile, the declines in gold and silver, which were heavily affected by external factors, also narrowed significantly. U.S. stock index futures appeared more resilient, with US30 futures turning positive during trading.

Latest developments in the Middle East conflict also continue to emerge. According to AXIOS, a U.S. official and an informed source revealed that after three weeks of war, the Trump administration has begun initial discussions on the next phase and possible peace negotiations with Iran. President Trump said on Friday that he is considering a “gradual end” to the war, but U.S. officials expect fighting to continue for another two to three weeks. Meanwhile, Trump’s advisors hope to start preparing for diplomatic mediation.

Sources say that Trump’s special envoys Kushner and Wittekov are involved in discussions about potential diplomatic avenues. Any peace agreement must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, resolving Iran’s high-enriched uranium stockpile, and establishing long-term agreements on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for regional proxies.

Other sources also indicate that although Egypt, Qatar, and the UK have relayed messages between the U.S. and Iran, there has been no direct contact recently. Egypt and Qatar have informed the U.S. and Israel that Iran is willing to negotiate, but with very tough conditions, including a ceasefire, guarantees that war will not recur, and compensation.

“Bottoming window” approaching?

So, when will the market bottom out, and how much impact will this have on the Chinese market? This morning, several major international banks also shared their views. Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Chairman Sneader expressed a relatively optimistic outlook on the Korean market, with minimal impact from energy factors on China.

Reid from Deutsche Bank reviewed the performance of the U.S. stock market after 30 major geopolitical events and found that the S&P 500’s average low point usually occurs about three weeks after the shock. The market is approaching this window, with the median maximum retracement around -6%. Reid also said that markets typically recover most of their losses within 34 days after the shock.

Independent research firm Variant Perception also believes that market sentiment is about to shift, and uncertainty may peak in the coming days. The firm pointed out that the recent simultaneous plunge in gold and stocks signals “risk-off” and forced liquidation, often indicating that a market bottom is near.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett noted that the market has not fully “surrendered,” but is approaching a critical moment. He believes that when about 88% of global stock indices fall below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages simultaneously, it’s the best time to increase risk positions. Currently, the S&P has reached this level, but global markets may need to fall another 3% to 5% before a buy signal is triggered. Hartnett estimates that if oil prices fall below $100 per barrel, markets will be more confident in re-entering risk assets.