【Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Deposits】 Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Deposits 0.38% to 2.1% Flash Interest Rate Final Strike Over 30 Promotions Countdown Open Account Early

Middle East Crisis Shows Signs of Hope, Trump Says US and Iran Could Reach an Agreement Within 5 Days, Giving Markets a Temporary Breather, While 1-Month Interbank Rates Fell by 5. Yesterday, three small and medium-sized banks (Tian Xing, Fubon, and CCB International) reversed course and increased Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit rates. Unfortunately, today (March 24), the industry did not respond en masse; only Dah Sing Bank raised rates alone. A total of five Hong Kong banks adjusted fixed deposit rates today, with three cuts and one increase, while Tian Xing Bank continued its pattern of both raising and lowering rates. The rate cuts include CCB International, which increased rates yesterday and lowered them today; Shangshang Bank has lowered rates for four consecutive weeks.

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Outlook for the future, experts expect a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry, waiting to see if the US and Iran will launch another major attack after five days before deciding on deposit rate strategies in the first quarter.

Today’s moves by Hong Kong banks:

Rate hikes:

• Dah Sing resumed rate increases last Friday, raising the six-month rate by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%

Rate cuts:

• Shangshang Bank reduced the 1-month rate by 0.1 percentage points, now at 1.43%
• Public Bank lowered the 1-month rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%
• CCB International slightly cut the 1-month rate by 0.05 percentage points to 1.8%

Mixed adjustments:

• Tian Xing Bank (AirStar Bank) recently lowered the 1-month rate by 0.1 percentage points to just below 1%, but slightly increased the 6-month rate by 0.05 percentage points to 2.4%

The myth of “guaranteed profit on IPO allocations” reappears, with enthusiasm for new listings rising, as overnight rates turn higher overnight.

Overnight interbank rates rose due to over HKD 10 billion in IPO margin deposits, reversing from decline to 1.49%; the 1-month interbank rate, which had fallen five consecutive weeks, dropped to 1.95%, the lowest since August 15 last year’s 1.45%. The total bank system balance remains at HKD 53.77 billion, compared to HKD 44.611 billion before the “funding” surge, a difference of HKD 9.159 billion.

Hong Kong dollar exchange rate this morning ranged from 7.8309 to 7.8351. As US-Iran tensions eased sharply, the US dollar index fell below 100, back to 99.37.

Seven new stocks compete, with over HKD 10 billion in IPO margin deposits locked

The myth of “guaranteed winning IPO” reappears. Among the four IPOs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in recent days, three are profitable, including solution provider Feisu Chuangxin and platform-based integrated circuit (IC) design company Guomin Technology, which surprised the market on Black Monday. Today, two more new stocks are making their debut: logistics robot provider Kailer Technology opened high, while mainland automotive HUD (head-up display) solution provider Zejing Co. dipped early, trading below the IPO price of HKD 44.2.

Currently, seven IPOs are rushing to close the season, with a maximum fundraising of about HKD 6.4 billion. Based on the margin loan amounts from brokerages, Huayuan Robotics is leading.

Reactions to the 7 IPOs’ public subscriptions:

Next-day IPO:

• Fourier, a Chinese supplier of audio amplification chips and haptic feedback chips: brokerages have lent at least HKD 600 million in margin, oversubscribed 20 times
• Copper Master, a Chinese cultural and creative craft product company: at least HKD 230 million borrowed, oversubscribed 3.6 times

Third-day IPO:

• Jishi Jiao, an AI computer vision solutions provider: margin loans already HKD 8.7 billion, oversubscribed 348 times
• Huayuan Robotics, a collaborative robot company: margin loans HKD 23.8 billion, oversubscribed 344 times
• Hantian Tiancheng, a silicon carbide epitaxy supplier: margin loans HKD 1.5 billion, oversubscribed 8 times
• Desi Biological, a medical imaging product and service developer and Tencent partner: HKD 5.2 billion borrowed, oversubscribed 57 times
• Tongrentang’s traditional Chinese medicine healthcare group: HKD 510 million borrowed, oversubscribed 4.7 times

Goldman Sachs expects two rate cuts in the US this year, while Citigroup estimates three

Despite traders betting on the Federal Reserve pivoting to rate hikes in the second half of the year, Wall Street banks generally expect at least one rate cut this year.

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts:

Four cuts this year:

• Stephen Miran, Fed Board member and Trump economic ally: It’s too early to conclude how rising oil prices will impact the US economy. The softening labor market suggests further rate cuts are needed. The forecast of six cuts this year has been revised down to four.

Three cuts this year:

• Liao Jiahao, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at Citibank: expects a total of 0.75 percentage points cut in June, July, and September
• Michelle Bowman, Fed Board member: still supports three rate cuts before the end of the year, aiming to support employment, but is watching Iran’s war impact, though believes it’s too early to judge

Two cuts this year:

• Goldman Sachs: sharp oil price increases have raised the risk of a US recession within 12 months to 30%, up 5 percentage points from previous estimates. GDP growth in the second half is expected to be below trend, with annualized growth between 1.25% and 1.75%. Unemployment rate forecast raised to 4.6%, with rate cuts expected in September and December
• BlackRock: if Iran conflict is not prolonged, expects two rate cuts within the year

One cut this year:

• Dot plot maintains a 0.25% cut forecast
• Morgan Stanley expects the first cut to be delayed until September
• Barclays: if oil prices retreat later, maintains a September rate cut, with another in March next year
• Austan Goolsbee, senior US economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments: with unemployment stable and inflation a major risk, only one rate cut is expected in September; another 0.25% cut in the first half of next year
• Christian Scherrmann, chief US economist at DWS: despite rising inflation and strong economic growth, expects one rate cut this year. The Fed will likely eventually cut further toward a neutral level, possibly after some delay
• Dah Sing Bank’s economic research and investment strategy department: uncertain outlook for Middle East conflict, persistent high oil prices pose inflation and stagflation risks. Expect only one 0.25% rate cut this year, with future meetings possibly avoiding significant policy shifts amid Middle East tensions

Likely rate cuts this year:

• Catherine Shih, head of wealth strategy and analysis at Bank of China Hong Kong: possible rate cuts depend on oil prices’ impact on the US economy and employment health. If employment weakens, the Fed will need to balance inflation control and economic protection, influencing future rate moves
• Austan Goolsbee: with unemployment stable, inflation remains the biggest risk; if Iran conflict resolves quickly, rate cuts may still occur later this year

Additionally, Hang Seng Bank has raised its Hong Kong economic growth forecast for this year from 2.5% to 3.1%, supported by increased local and external demand.

17 Hong Kong banks countdown to ultra-high fixed deposit rates expiring

In summary, March is coming to an end, and 17 banks of various sizes are counting down on many ultra-high fixed deposit rates.

Fixed deposit rates expiring in late March:

March 29:

• Fusion Bank: 14-day 25%, 7-day 8.8%, 18-month 2.7%

March 25:

• ZA Bank: 7-day 10% and 20%

End of March:

• WeLab Bank: 7-day 20%
• PAO Bank: 1-month 15%, half-year and 1-year 2.75%, 3-month 2.65%
• CCB (Asia): 1-month 12%, 3-month 6.88% and 5.88%
• HSBC: 7-day 7%
• Fubon: 7-day 6.88%, 1-month 3.38%
• Nanyang Commercial Bank: 7-day 6.8%, 1-month 2.88%
• DBS: 2-month 6%
• Hang Seng Bank: 7-day 5%
• Jiuyou: 7-day 5%, 1-month 2.08%
• Bank of China Hong Kong: 1-month 4.8%
• Citibank: 3-month 4.1% (existing credit card customers upgrade to designated wealth management)
• ICBC (Asia): 3-month 3.8%, 98 days and 188 days 2.3%
• Dah Sing: 1-year 2.8%
• CCB: 3-month 2.35%
• East Asia Bank: half-year 2.3%, 3-month 2.2%, 1-year 2.1%
• Standard Chartered: 3-month 2.1%, 1-year 2%, half-year 1.95%

Reviewing over 14 banks and financial institutions that have cut rates in March, if risk-takers who sold off in Hong Kong stocks yesterday, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the so-called bull-bear dividing line of the 250-day moving average to bottom out, it might be wise to take profits during today’s rebound. Given the frequent “Rashomon” events between US and Iran, with Iran denying negotiations with the US and Israel, the political market remains unpredictable. It’s better to lock in high yields while they last, as 33 special high-rate offers are about to expire, ranging from 3.8% to 21%, with thresholds flexible for investors aiming to profit on both sides.