Galaxy Securities: Gold's Consecutive Decline Is Not a Failure of Safe-Haven Status, but Rather a Shift in Pricing Logic from Risk-Driven to Rate-Driven

Galaxy Securities Research Report states that the continuous decline in gold prices is not a failure of safe-haven assets, but rather a shift in pricing logic from being risk-driven to interest rate-driven. Recently, gold has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, with a weekly decline of over 10%, which appears abnormal amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. However, fundamentally, it is not a disappearance of safe-haven demand, but a change in the market’s prioritized variables for pricing. In the past, escalating conflicts often led to capital inflows into gold, but currently, the market’s primary response is to inflation and interest rate trajectories, causing a temporary divergence between gold and geopolitical risks. Short-term pressure does not alter the long-term logic; gold still depends on the rebalancing of interest rates and credit. In the current environment of high oil prices and high interest rates, increased short-term volatility in gold is inevitable. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, central bank gold purchases, reserve diversification, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold. Overall, this round of adjustment is more about rhythm changes rather than a trend reversal.