Vehicle Owners Attention! New Round of Refined Oil Price Adjustment Coming

Ask AI · How does the Middle East situation affect this round of oil price increases?

China Securities Journal, March 23 — The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin at 24:00 on March 23. According to comprehensive industry opinions, this round of oil price increases is “a certainty.”

Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told China Securities Journal that recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has remained tense with no signs of easing. Market concerns about reduced crude oil supply continue to intensify, driving international crude oil prices to stay relatively strong within high ranges. As a result, during this adjustment cycle (from 24:00 on March 9 to 24:00 on March 23), the average international crude oil price has risen significantly compared to the previous cycle, with the crude oil change rate starting with a high positive value and showing a continuous upward trend.

Liu Ting, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, also mentioned that during this adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices surged sharply, leading to a larger adjustment range for refined oil prices. As of March 19, the reference crude oil price for the cycle was $108.88 per barrel, up 43.10% from the previous cycle. Liu Ting predicts that the final increase in this round of refined oil price adjustments is inevitable.

Meng Peng estimates that the domestic retail limit price for refined oil may see a broad increase at 24:00 on March 23. According to Zhuochuang Information, the final increase could be around 2,200 yuan per ton, which translates to an increase of about 1.73 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline and 1.83 yuan per liter for 0# diesel, respectively.

China Securities Journal notes that since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have experienced five adjustment windows, with the overall pattern being “four increases and one pause.” Compared to the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by a total of 1,160 yuan/ton and 1,120 yuan/ton, respectively. If this round of price adjustment increases as expected, the pricing pattern in 2026 will become “five increases and one pause.”

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 7, 2026.

Looking ahead, Liu Ting predicts a higher probability of an increase in the next round of refined oil prices. She analyzes that on the supply side, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and supply risks continue to grow, supporting oil prices. On the demand side, global demand remains weak, and some institutions worry that escalating geopolitical conflicts could drag down the economy and oil consumption.

Meng Peng believes that in the short term, under geopolitical disturbances, international crude oil prices are likely to remain high. Based on current crude oil prices, the initial stage of the next adjustment is expected to start with a positive value, but the increase may narrow, with the first-day increase around 450 yuan/ton. (China Securities Journal APP)

(The views expressed are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks; please proceed with caution.)