Technical Market Analysis: Middle East "Black Swan" Deal Heavy Blow to Global Markets, Nikkei Plunges 2000 Points, 5000 A-Shares Decline, Beware of Daily and Monthly Line Top Structures, Market Turning Point Timeline Exposed

Why does the daily top structure of AI indicate a key signal for trend reversal?

On March 23, amid the “black swan” event in the Middle East, global markets faced another test. The Korea Composite Index plunged over 6% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker; the Japanese Nikkei index fell over 5% intraday, dropping more than 2,000 points in half a day, hitting a new low for the correction; last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices all suffered significant declines.

Domestically, the Hang Seng Index fell over 3%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped more than 2%, losing the 3,900-point mark. Nearly 5,000 stocks declined across the market, with fewer than 500 stocks rising.

By midday, the Shanghai Composite was down 2.5% at 3,858.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.53%, the ChiNext Index dropped 2.44%, the CSI 300 declined 2.42%, and the STAR 50 fell 2.89%. Sector performance was clearly mixed: major funds flowed into passenger cars, electric vehicles, automotive, coal, and photovoltaic module sectors, while themes like helium, coke, Yushu robots, coal supply reform, and photovoltaic equipment saw gains. Conversely, sectors like precious metals, silver, integrated inductor manufacturing, under-display cameras, and animal vaccines led declines.

Senior market analyst Xu Xiaoming analyzed that influenced by the international environment, Asia-Pacific stocks opened weak and the A-shares also opened sharply lower, continuing to decline with signs of accelerated fall. However, the key focus remains on Wednesday this week, and that remains unchanged.

He pointed out that defense mainly relies on two points: first, the daily top structure, which is relatively uncommon in daily cycles and is a major reason. After the top structure appears, the market’s correction lasted 13 trading days until last Friday, with a slow start and a faster finish. Currently, it’s impossible to determine the market bottom; both minute and daily charts show no signs of a bottom. The focus this week is on Wednesday, with a certain probability of a daily low at 9.

Second, the monthly top sequence, also due to the larger monthly cycle level. There are only 7 trading days left in this month, and the probability of a monthly positive close is low, so the validity of the monthly sequence will continue.

Famous analyst Chen Guo from Eastmoney Strategy pointed out that the situation in Iran remains highly uncertain. In the financial markets, U.S. stocks responded mildly, but U.S. Treasuries are pricing in “inflation,” industrial metals are pricing in “stagnation.” Overall, the global financial market is shifting toward mild stagflation. The recent correction in the A-share market partly reflects expectations of overseas stagflation. In this external environment, China’s new energy system and manufacturing cost advantages should be emphasized, which also keeps the medium-term outlook for Chinese stocks optimistic amid overseas turbulence.

Chen Guo analyzed that short-term market risk appetite is constrained. Industry allocation should focus on three ideas: energy substitution, low-volatility dividends, and sectors with certain growth prospects.

Risk reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously.