Shipping Volume Plummets 95%! Institutions Report Only 144 Vessel Transits Through Strait of Hormuz in March

Since the Middle East conflict began, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt, and this critical global energy trade route is facing severe blockage.

On March 24, shipping analytics firm Kpler reported that from 3:00 AM to 11:00 PM GMT on March 1-23, only 144 vessels transited the strait, a 95% drop compared to peaceful times. The shipping intelligence agency Lloyd’s List latest report states, “The passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be severely disrupted.”

Currently, the few ships permitted to pass mainly rely on a northern route skirting the coast of Larak Island in Iran, reportedly approved by Tehran. Iranian authorities are processing transit applications case by case, and some governments have begun negotiations with Tehran for bulk passage arrangements.

Most transit vessels are Iranian-flagged, with sanctions ships accounting for over 40%

Out of 144 transits, 91 were oil and gas carriers, over half of which were fully loaded and mostly headed east out of the strait. Last week, Lloyd’s List Intelligence analyst Bridget Diakun stated that among the completed transits, Iranian-flagged or Iranian-flagged vessels accounted for the highest proportion, followed by Greek and other international operators.

Analysis by AFP shows that since the outbreak of hostilities, over 40% of transiting ships are on the US, EU, or UK sanctions lists; among oil and gas carriers, this figure is nearly 59%. Diakun noted that since March 16, “all westbound ships are shadow fleets, gas carriers, or oil tankers, dominating the transit flow.”

JPMorgan commodities analyst pointed out that most of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is headed to Asia. Overall, 98% of observable oil transits are Iranian crude oil, with an average of about 1.3 million barrels per day in early March. Meanwhile, according to MarineTraffic data, since March 3, about 11 LNG carriers originally destined for Europe have rerouted to Asia due to supply constraints and spot price increases.

Northern corridor gradually taking shape, some ships have paid for passage

Lloyd’s List tracking shows that over 20 ships have used the northern “corridor,” mostly Greek-owned, with some owned by Indian, Pakistani, and Syrian companies. According to Lloyd’s List, at least one vetted vessel paid $2 million for safe passage.

On March 23, two Indian-flagged LPG carriers and a Panamanian-flagged vessel, Bright Gold, transited via the northern route. Bright Gold was carrying about 40,000 tons of methanol and is expected to arrive at its destination on April 13. Additionally, a container ship named Newvoyager completed transit after paying fees to Iranian authorities, though the specific amount and payment method have not been confirmed.

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