QCP analysis suggests that after Trump's weekend ultimatum regarding Iran and strait passage, the market initially priced in higher geopolitical risks and suppressed risk assets. Although BTC briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, it remained more stable than in previous risk-averse phases. It also noted that the U.S. debt levels, along with expectations of increased military spending and potential stagflation risks, could force central banks into a policy dilemma, thereby increasing BTC's attractiveness as a "neutral escape valve/permissionless settlement layer." If cross-border capital flows are further restricted, BTC may become one of the alternative settlement options.