Kweichow Moutai Leads the Way: Why Is the Baijiu Sector Rising Against the Trend?

On March 16 and 17, the A-share market experienced a broad pullback, with the liquor sector continuously rising against the trend. As of the close on March 17, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price was 1,485 yuan per share, up 1.7%.

The Shanghai Securities News cited brokerage analysts who believe that the white liquor industry is currently in the inventory digestion stage. Coupled with the continued impact of consumption policies, ongoing channel reforms, and low valuation levels, the long-term investment value of the white liquor sector is gradually emerging. In terms of investment strategy, Kweichow Moutai has the strongest long-term certainty and is currently the core holding in the white liquor sector.

On the news front, on the morning of March 16, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the National Bureau of Statistics introduced the economic operation from January to February 2026. Overall, consumer prices showed an upward trend in January and February, with February’s CPI year-on-year increase reaching a three-year high. The main factors influencing this include:

1. A significant increase in service prices, mainly due to the impact of the long Spring Festival holiday this year, which led to a noticeable rise in residents’ travel, visiting relatives, and outings, significantly affecting CPI growth.
2. Food prices shifted from decline to rise. During the Spring Festival holiday, increased gatherings and visiting friends and relatives boosted food demand, driving up related commodity prices.
3. The price increase of industrial consumer goods expanded, with February’s industrial consumer goods prices rising 1.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.

In the industry sector, recent channel reforms at Kweichow Moutai have seen key developments. The non-standard Moutai consignment sales model has been officially implemented, where distributors shift from earning margins to receiving fixed service fees. This change is viewed as an important signal of channel system adjustments in the white liquor industry and has once again attracted market attention to the sector.

The report suggests that the recent core catalyst for the white liquor sector is the continued deepening of reforms by leading companies. Kweichow Moutai has fully implemented a consignment sales model for aged Moutai, boutique Moutai, zodiac liquor, and small-capacity Feitian products. Distributors are required to pay a deposit to obtain sales rights, and all transactions are completed through the “iMoutai” platform, sold at a unified price, with about 5% service rebates.

The report points out that this model essentially promotes further marketization of channels. On one hand, it strengthens price management through unified pricing and platform sales, maintaining brand pricing; on the other hand, it stabilizes channel profit structures via service fees, thereby improving channel efficiency and terminal sales capacity.

Institutional data shows that as of mid-March 2026, the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry was about 20 times earnings, with the white liquor sub-sector valued at approximately 18 times earnings. From a pricing perspective, key industry indicators remain relatively stable. The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai still falls within a reasonable range, indicating a resilient industry pricing system.

Meanwhile, macro policies continue to signal a recovery in consumption, and inventory digestion is underway. The current adjustment in the white liquor industry follows a gradual path of “inventory digestion—stabilization of bulk prices—improvement in sales—performance recovery.” Although the industry is still in the inventory reduction phase, as channel inventories gradually decline, wholesale prices and terminal sales are expected to improve over time.

In terms of investment strategy, the report suggests that high-quality leading companies and strong alpha targets with growth potential are worth ongoing attention. Among these, high-end leaders remain the top choice for institutions. Supported by channel reforms, brand advantages, and consumer base, Kweichow Moutai has the strongest long-term certainty and is the current core holding in the white liquor sector.

Source: Shanghai Securities News

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