The deviation retest is happening right now around 71.5K on 4H resistance. Trump just posted that the US and Iran have had "productive conversations regarding a complete resolution of hostilities" and has postponed all military strikes on Iranian power plants for five days while talks continue.

BTC jumped from 67.4K to 71.5K on the news. A 6% move. The market is pricing in the end of the war before anything has been agreed.

Technically, 71.5K is the exact retest of the deviation zone on the 4H. The weekly closed at 68K, confirming the failed breakout above 74.5K. The CME gap from the weekend is now filled which removes the magnet above. The structure says this retest should reject and continue lower.

The geopolitical situation is the one variable that can override this. A confirmed ceasefire would send oil lower, ease inflation expectations and bring rate cut hopes back. But look at what we actually know. Three days ago Trump said "I do not want a ceasefire." Iran wants a full ceasefire, guarantees and compensation. The US wants zero enrichment and decommissioned nuclear facilities. These positions are nowhere close. What we got today is a five day pause on strikes. Not a ceasefire or a deal.

If this pause collapses, which is likely given the gap between both sides, this relief rally unwinds and price falls back below 68K. Shorts reenter and longs who chased the pump get trapped. If it leads to a real deal, the bear thesis changes short term. Right now probability favours the first scenario. Trump has contradicted himself on Iran every 48 hours for three weeks. One Truth Social post does not erase a 24 day war, 7.8B in ETF outflows, GDP at 0.7% and core PCE at 3.1%.

Watching 71.5K-72.3K closely. Daily close below 70K confirms the deviation retest and puts 60K-53K back in play. The short at 73.5K remains active because the weekly deviation retest is still pending.

#BTCBreaks$71000 $BTC ‌