Polymarket traders betting on Middle East war outbreak: Ceasefire agreement to be reached next week!

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, a group of accounts placed large bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran before Trump publicly announced his stance, raising strong suspicions of insider trading.

On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had had “very good and productive discussions” about ending the Middle East conflict. However, prior to this, several accounts on Polymarket had quietly built positions, heavily betting that a ceasefire agreement would be reached within the week.

Notably, at least one of these accounts has a “precedent”—it previously profited significantly from bets on Middle East developments, demonstrating precise timing that has led to widespread speculation about whether these accounts are linked to political insiders.

After the incident was exposed, Polymarket immediately announced updates to its insider trading rules, explicitly banning the use of confidential information to trade and market manipulation.

Ceasefire Bets Precede Trump’s Announcement

According to Polymarket data, 10 newly created accounts recently established large positions on the “US-Iran Ceasefire” market, betting that the ceasefire would be reached by March 31 or April 15. These accounts collectively wagered about $160,000, with potential profits exceeding $1 million if the ceasefire occurs before the end of the month.

These accounts were first disclosed by user Lirrato on X platform on Sunday, and then shared by PolymarketHistory.

Following Trump’s post on Truth Social, the unrealized gains of these 10 accounts increased by over $300,000. The scale and timing of the bets—building large positions just hours before the president’s public statement—are at the core of external suspicions.

Same Account Continues to Win

One account, in particular, stands out. Its trading ID is “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS.” The account was opened at the end of February this year, with its first two trades betting $7,600 on the US attacking Iran before February 28, and $11,283 on an attack happening before March 1. These two trades earned the account over $85,000.

Now, the same account has made further moves, betting $8,005 on a ceasefire before March 31, and $15,614 on a ceasefire before April 15. These positions currently have an unrealized profit of over $30,000.

The account’s creation date, betting pattern, and high recent win rate have led some market observers to question whether these accounts are operated by insiders with political connections to the US or Iran, possessing non-public information about current diplomatic developments.

Insider Trading Shadows Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have long been associated with insider trading controversies. Previously, a Polymarket trader bet on the US conducting military action against Venezuela days before the announcement, ultimately earning over $400,000. Another platform, Kalshi, recently announced it is investigating insider trading and has banned two traders.

In response to these suspicions, Polymarket announced on Monday an update to its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting: trading based on stolen confidential information, relying on illegal insider tips, and participation by users capable of influencing event outcomes.

“Market prosperity depends on clear rules,” said Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s Chief Legal Officer, in a statement. “Refining these rules clarifies our expectations for all participants and demonstrates the compliance infrastructure we have established.”

Analysts suggest that Polymarket’s proactive rule update may indicate plans to follow Kalshi’s example and conduct formal investigations into these suspicious accounts. Whether the accounts betting on Iran’s ceasefire are truly insiders remains uncertain, but if Polymarket launches an investigation, the truth may soon come to light.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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