【US Stock Futures】US-Iran Negotiations "Rashomon" Debate; Dow Futures Down 258 Points, Nasdaq Futures Down 0.6%; Oil Prices Rebound, Gold Prices Continue to Soften (Continuously Updated)

U.S.-Iran Negotiations “Rashomon” Effect: U.S. stock futures declined during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, with Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264, S&P 500 futures down 38 points at 6,596, and Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258. Oil prices rebounded, with NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%, and Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices continued to weaken, with COMEX gold down 0.9% at $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357. Today, the U.S. will release the ADP employment change weekly report, March manufacturing and services PMI preliminary figures, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for March.

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Market Snapshot:

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264; S&P 500 futures down 38 points, at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258.

【14:00】Oil prices rebound, with NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%, Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain soft, with COMEX gold down 0.9% at $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold price may continue to fluctuate due to Middle East conflict; maintains year-end target of $6,250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】Reports suggest OpenAI offers generous terms to private equity firms, with a 17.5% minimum return, competing for enterprise AI market share.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky passes away from cancer at age 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trend】Gold continues its nine-day decline, with per two-gram gold price falling below HKD 40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; reduction may continue into April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trend】Gold drops over 20% from recent highs, entering a bear market; Morgan Stanley: funds are flowing from safe-haven assets into equities, which is positive for U.S. stocks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Takashi Sano orders assessment of oil-related supply chains to respond to the crisis; Finance Ministry reportedly consulting markets on potential intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge impacts through stock holdings.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states reliance on Microsoft poses risks in investor documents; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve official Daly: U.S. economy faces at least two scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to manage risks.

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC26) scheduled for June 8, expected to unveil a series of AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK destroyer “HMS Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean (ongoing updates).

Below $1: U.S. Market Conditions on March 23====

Monday: Trump’s remarks still questioned; Dow halves gains to 631 points, oil continues to fall 10%

U.S. President Trump claims negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, causing oil prices to fall and stocks to rebound. The Dow once rose 1,134 points to a high of 46,712; the S&P 500 rose 2.2% to 6,651; Nasdaq rose 2.5% to 22,189. However, gains narrowed by close: Dow up 631 points at 46,208; S&P up 1.1% at 6,581; Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

See U.S. Market Close:

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Oil prices fell 14.1% intraday, closing down 10% at NY crude $88.13 and Brent $100.5. Gold dropped 7% to a low of $4,099.18, closing down 1.9% at $4,407.18.

Macquarie’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We remain cautious about early reports of breakthroughs and tweets,” believing that the war is unlikely to continue past April as Iran’s threat may weaken, but large-scale military actions are unlikely to end this week.

Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran went smoothly over the past two days, and he has instructed the U.S. military to suspend all attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on ongoing meetings and discussions.

He further stated that multiple agreements had been reached, including discussions about Iran’s leadership, and claimed Iran had agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also warned that if talks break down, bombing will continue.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later quoted sources saying the U.S. and Iran have not engaged in negotiations and are not currently negotiating. It also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict conditions. Another agency, Mehr, cited Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Trump’s comments aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s stance is that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as Iran is not the one initiating war.

Trump later responded, saying negotiations took place on the evening of Sunday (22nd), emphasizing Iran’s eagerness to reach an agreement, and admitted he does not understand why Iranian media refutes his statements.

T. Rowe Price noted that after Iran’s attack, gold initially surged as a safe haven, but the rally was short-lived as markets quickly reinterpreted the event as a geopolitical risk. Investors did not see it as a sustained geopolitical shock but rather as inflation driven by energy prices. This shift pushed real yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and dampened gold’s appeal.

Gold had already gained significantly before the event, limiting further safe-haven inflows. The outlook for gold remains influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, real yields and central bank policies will be key, along with energy prices and the dollar. The firm still views gold as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks and uncertain policy outlooks support gold, even if short-term prices may remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next Page

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Market Snapshot:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points, oil drops 10%

【21:30】Trump delays final ultimatum by 5 days, says negotiations with Iran ongoing; Dow up 744 points, oil down 8%

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations; Dow futures narrow gains; oil down 5%

【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks with Iran, final ultimatum delayed 5 days; Dow futures up 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%, oil plunges 10%

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% at 23,934.

【14:13】NY crude up 0.8% at $98.97; Brent crude up 0.6% at $112.85.

【14:13】【Gold Price Trend】Spot gold drops below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; local two-gram gold price down HKD 1,000, retreating from high by HKD 10,000.

【13:25】【Oil Price Trend】Goldman warns of “largest supply shock in history,” raising Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $85.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA Director: Over 40 Middle East energy assets “severely damaged,” conflict impact comparable to two oil crises in the 1970s plus the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【JPY Trend】JPY/HKD at 4.9; Japanese officials reiterate “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures against exchange rate fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Japan and South Korea stocks suffer “Black Monday,” with Korean stocks falling 5%, triggering sixth “Sidecar” mechanism this year; Nikkei drops over 2,600 points.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: Terafab project to be based in Austin, jointly operated by Tesla and SpaceX.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final ultimatum countdown: Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure; oil volatile (ongoing updates).

【07:30】【Market Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict, monitor Fed officials’ comments; U.S. March manufacturing PMI to be released Tuesday.

【07:30】Iran conflict escalates; Trump states on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate; Dow drops over 600 points at times; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit six-month high, with a 40% chance of rate hike in September. Dow closes down 443 points at 45,577; S&P down 1.51%; Nasdaq down 2.01%.

See U.S. Market Close:

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