Full position. Livermore: March 24th Review Record

Simply put, today’s market situation. [Taogu Ba]

This afternoon, I went all-in. I believe this is a good timing to gamble on the market, and afterward, it will depend on tomorrow’s market rebound. My holdings didn’t show much room for a rebound today; the market didn’t rotate. But it’s important to understand one thing: if there is no real rebound today, a larger rebound is likely to occur tomorrow. This is a rhythm issue in the market. Currently, the market lacks sustained strength. A strong market today cannot continue to be strong tomorrow. Instead, the market that didn’t rise today may see a strong rally the next day. Therefore, when choosing a market trend, it’s always better to sell after a rally and then look for other opportunities.

The rebound strength is acceptable. Although it didn’t fully recover yesterday’s decline and there was no volume surge, generally, markets tend to rebound. If the market is weak, the rebound space should be around 30%. A reasonable rebound is about 50%. If the market quickly rebounds over 50%, it indicates a strong rebound, which is quite rare. I think when the rebound reaches about 30%, it’s time to reduce positions. The percentage of rebound here refers to the decline percentage, based on your individual stocks’ drops, not the rebound gain at this position.

After going all-in, if the market continues to rebound tomorrow, I will choose to reduce my positions. The biggest mistake is to think the market can keep rebounding; when adding positions, it should be a short-term operation. After one or two days of rebound, you should exit the added positions. If the market doesn’t fall further afterward, then carefully select trending stocks for further operations.

Don’t assume that a market decline will lead to a continuous crash, nor think that a rebound will cause a sharp rise. Today’s low volume isn’t a big deal; as long as the market stops panicking, confidence among bulls will gradually recover. The turbulent events are still under negotiation, and no final result has been reached. The negotiation process will still have sparks, indicating that no full agreement has been made. Just like the Ukraine-Russia situation before, the market became numb afterward and stopped paying attention. It’s similar now—Ukraine and Russia are still in conflict, but the market has simply stopped reacting.

Use a rebound perspective to view this market; it is no longer weakening, and we should look for continued stability.