[US Stock Market] US Secretary of Defense criticizes Iran; US proposes joint release of 300-400 million barrels of oil; oil prices still down 9% (updating)

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Tuesday will be the most intense day of military actions against Iran so far, with the highest number of fighter jets and bombers deployed to strike Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine indicated that the U.S. is targeting Iranian gunboats.

Hegseth said this is a precise, targeted strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war of attrition.

Caine also said that although Iranian forces are fighting, their combat effectiveness has not exceeded U.S. expectations. “I believe they are indeed fighting, and I respect that, but I don’t think their fighting strength is stronger than we anticipated.”

The UAE refinery has suspended operations after a drone attack.

On Tuesday, defense ministers from seven countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US) held a meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC quoted sources saying the U.S. considers a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil appropriate.

Brent crude fell 9%, trading at $89.84 per barrel.

Amazon is returning to the bond market. Bloomberg reported that the company is issuing up to 11 tranches of bonds, ranging from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche — due 2076 — is initially priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. stocks fluctuated downward, with the Dow down 100 points to 47,639; the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 6,783; and the Nasdaq rose 0.1% to 22,716.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6%, temporarily at 98.62; long-term U.S. Treasury yields steadied at around 4.104%. Gold rebounded 1%, trading at $5,208 per ounce.

In focus stocks, memory chip stocks continued to rebound, with Micron (MU) up 5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) up 4%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after market close.

Adam Hetts, head of the Global Multi-Asset Team at J.P. Morgan and portfolio manager Oliver Blackbourn, said that disruptions in energy supply, rising oil and natural gas prices, and the lack of a clear cooling path are increasing inflation risks and causing greater volatility in global markets. If the conflict persists, economic pressures could deepen; however, U.S. political considerations might quickly frame the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlooks uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings announced after close

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces reliance on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic files lawsuit demanding the U.S. Department of Defense withdraw blacklisting

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says the war will end soon; gold prices rebound

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to pass; Iran issues warnings again; Trump at press conference: Iran’s war will end soon but no timeline promised (ongoing updates)

【08:26】【AI + NVIDIA】NVIDIA reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device release date to wait for new Siri

Market below $1 as of March 9:

Monday: Trump says war nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump told foreign media that the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete. Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are now just a few scattered remaining. Their drones have been destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

See the market close:

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“If you look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The U.S. can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran that obstructing the waterway will have consequences. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be the end of their country… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “We will not hold back.”

Following the statement, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5%, to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4%, to $88.

The Dow initially plunged 886 points to 46,615; the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, to 6,636; the Nasdaq dropped 1.5%, to 22,061.

But by close, the Dow recovered 239 points, ending at 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, to 6,795; the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, to 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike caused by Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the Iran conflict.

After the Brussels G7 finance ministers’ online meeting, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported in Europe or the U.S.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also noted that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control in OECD countries are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks are meant to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizing, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 98.877; 10-year U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly to 4.107%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rose 2.5%, to $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day — the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict began.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, signaling that large-scale air campaigns or escalation are imminent. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS noted that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, this week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, there are no significant damages to energy infrastructure; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening, and solutions involving safeguarding shipping through the Hormuz Strait remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100; markets open one hour earlier due to daylight saving time

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2%, at 24,127

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly planning to acquire Warner Bros. from Paramount, investing hundreds of millions USD

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge past $100; NYMEX crude jumps 30%; more Middle Eastern producers cut output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” hits Japan and Korea with declines over 7%; South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge intensifies inflation concerns

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: small price to pay; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (ongoing updates)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; markets open one hour earlier

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. jobs data caused last Friday’s sharp decline; Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX volatility index spiked 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See the market close:

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“For now, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The U.S. can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve shot all they can; they’d better not play tricks, or it will be the end of their country… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is open now, and ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

The same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X: “We are just getting started” and “We will not hold back.”

Following the statement, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks rebounded. Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike caused by Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the Iran conflict.

After the Brussels G7 finance ministers’ online meeting, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported in Europe or the U.S.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also noted that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control in OECD countries are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks are meant to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizing, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 98.877; 10-year U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly to 4.107%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rose 2.5%, to $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day — the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict began.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, signaling that large-scale air campaigns or escalation are imminent. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS noted that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, this week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, there are no significant damages to energy infrastructure; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening, and solutions involving safeguarding shipping through the Hormuz Strait remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.