March 10: Bought Meiliyun at the open, a bowl of noodles, where did I go wrong?

Good evening everyone. Today’s review is a bit late. [Taogu Ba]

Today’s operations (daily comments section updates the transaction list in real time):

Analysis of today’s operations:

$Meiliyun (sz000815)$ experienced violent divergence yesterday. Today can be considered a standard weak-to-strong shift. Why did it still break the board so dramatically?

1. First, look at Meiliyun’s core data today:
   Open: 19.01 yuan (+5.96%), quickly hitting the limit-up (19.73 yuan)
   Break the board: around 9:45, the board broke, falling back to +6.91%, repeatedly opening and closing throughout the day
   Close: 17.90 yuan (-0.22%), closing at a high with huge volume, “false阴真阳”
   Volume: transaction amount 5.084 billion yuan (historical high), turnover rate 39.61%
   Funds: main force net outflow of 517 million yuan, institutions / northbound / retail funds all net selling

2. Auction analysis

From the auction perspective, it’s clear that selling pressure is small, absorption is strong, and the main force is engaging in trap trading. Combined with yesterday’s volume divergence, this is a standard weak-to-strong shift.

The auction has no issues, so where is the problem?

After careful reflection, I summarized a few personal opinions:

1. Opening surge was too high: yesterday’s volume divergence was large; if today is a weak-to-strong shift, it should open around 3%, which would be more appropriate.

Today’s open: 19.01 yuan (+5.96%), the stock didn’t show a weak-to-strong pattern but accelerated.

Because the opening increase was too high, from the order book, it’s clear that there were hardly any large orders divergence. It opened high and accelerated, so if there was any wind in the sector, yesterday’s holders would be eager to cash out. Any divergence would immediately lead to a sell-off.

2. Power sector weakness: Jinkai New Energy was the first to break the board. The power sector opened too uniformly; after rapid gains, divergence fell back.

3. Excessive consistency: community shouting “target 30 yuan” and “power leader,” retail investors flooding in.

These are my personal reasons for Meiliyun breaking the board. What do you think? Feel free to leave comments.
Will there be a rebound tomorrow? I think this is what everyone cares most about. First, we shouldn’t speculate on the main force’s intentions.
We need to consider multiple factors after tomorrow’s open: auction increase + large order fund flow + sector sentiment + whether it can break through resistance levels, etc.
Of course, I will also explain in the comments section immediately after selling.

–This article is only a personal record of real trading and logical review, not investment advice. No stocks are recommended. Profit and loss are at your own risk.–

Thanks to @Jinge丶Tiema and @Dongbula Dong for their tips.

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Dongbula Dong