Trump's war predictions, Pershing Square files for IPO, Anthropic's lawsuit and more in Morning Squawk

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Happy Tuesday. I have too many Lego-loving adult friends to be surprised that the company continues to outpace the toy industry.

Stock futures are lower this morning. The market is coming off a winning, though volatile, day.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. The magic words

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida, on March 9, 2026.

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

Wall Street witnessed a stunning midday recovery yesterday after President Donald Trump indicated the U.S.-Iran war could be over soon. Trump told a CBS News reporter on Monday that “the war is very complete, pretty much” and later said during a press conference that the conflict would end “very soon.”

Here’s what to know:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished more than 230 points in the green, capping a more than 1,100-point rebound from session lows.
• U.S. crude oil, meanwhile, closed lower after surging above the closely followed $100 per barrel mark. Oil futures plunged further in overnight trading.
• Trump’s comments appeared to give investors confidence that what has become the biggest oil supply disruption in history would be short-lived.
• Still, the spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told CNBC yesterday that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz “must be very careful.”
• Sources told CNBC that energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations will hold a virtual meeting this morning to discuss potentially releasing oil reserves.
• Follow live market updates here.

2. PS to NYSE

Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Oct. 21st, 2025.

CNBC

Breaking news this morning: Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is taking his hedge fund to the New York Stock Exchange. Ackman’s Pershing Square today filed to list under the ticker symbol “PS.”

As CNBC’s Yun Li reports, the listing will allow public investors to take a stake in Ackman’s investing platform. It will be a dual listing, meaning investors can buy either Pershing Square’s common shares or shares of its investment vehicle, which will trade under the ticker “PSUS.”

Pershing Square said it has $2.8 billion worth of secured commitments heading into the offering, coming from groups such as family offices, pension funds and high-net-worth individuals.

3. Econ-oh, my!

Digitally Generated Image , 3D rendered

Wong Yu Liang | Moment | Getty Images

The rising price of oil and last week’s weak jobs report are leading some economists to warn that the U.S. could end up with high inflation and slow growth — otherwise known as stagflation.

Fears of U.S. stagflation similarly rose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and again when Trump announced tariffs last year. But both cases failed to materialize into a true stagflationary environment like that of the 1970s.

Meanwhile, prediction markets bettors are increasingly pricing in a recession. Odds of a U.S. recession jumped above 34% on Kalshi yesterday after sitting below 25% late last week.

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4. A-list to blacklist

U.S. Department of War and Anthropic logos are seen in this illustration taken March 1, 2026.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Anthropic is taking the federal government to court. In a lawsuit filed yesterday, Anthropic said the Pentagon’s recent move to blacklist the AI company is “unprecedented and unlawful” and “irreparably” harms the startup.

The lawsuit is the latest update in the dramatic stand-off between Anthropic and the Trump administration. Anthropic went from being the federal government’s AI provider of choice to being designated a “supply chain risk” — a label typically used for foreign adversaries — after it disagreed with the Pentagon’s usage demands.

The Trump administration’s move concerned defense experts, who say Anthropic’s blacklisting risks setting a troubling precedent and writing off a key U.S.-based AI vendor.

5. Helping hand

2026 Jeep Cherokee

Michael Wayland / CNBC

Stellantis is turning to some unexpected automotive suppliers to launch its newest hybrid SUVs.

As CNBC’s Michael Wayland reports, the first-ever hybrid Jeep SUV for North America contains a system from Toyota-backed Blue Nexus. Its forthcoming extended-range electric vehicles, meanwhile, will use technology from Bosch — the world’s largest auto supplier.

Automakers often use components from suppliers in their vehicles. What’s not as common is using supplier components for main systems and technologies, especially when those components come from a competitor like Toyota.

The Daily Dividend

Luxury hair care brand Olaplex has given up nearly 95% of its value since going public in late 2021. Here’s how the company is trying to regain Wall Street’s confidence.

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—_ CNBC’s Dan Mangan, Spencer Kimball, Sean Conlon, Jeff Cox, Ashley Capoot, Jonathan Vanian, Eamon Javers, Michael Wayland and Laya Neelakandan contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition._

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