Bernstein: Oil prices need to reach $155 per barrel to potentially disrupt demand

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-10T14:05:52+00:00

Bernstein Research reports indicate that oil prices need to reach $155 per barrel to significantly impact demand. The recent rise in oil prices is a reaction to the war. If 20% of global oil supplies are disrupted long-term, future oil prices could rise sharply. Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, the market may anticipate an economic slowdown.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-10 14:05:52

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Investing.com - Bernstein’s report released on Tuesday states that oil prices need to rise far above current levels to trigger substantial demand destruction.

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Analyst Irene Himona wrote, “In today’s currency value, we need the average oil price in fiscal year 2026 to reach $155 per barrel to match the 5.2% oil burden level seen in 2007,” which is the critical point where high oil prices historically start to erode consumer spending.

The report views the recent surge in Brent crude oil as part of an evolving “war price discovery” process following the outbreak of conflict with Iran.

Brent crude initially hovered around $80-$85, “quickly surged to $94 per barrel,” then reached $110 at Monday’s open before falling back to $100.

Himona attributes this shift to unprecedented operational risks, noting that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for the first time in history, which rapidly forced upstream production in Iraq, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to halt as storage facilities neared capacity.

Bernstein estimates that if “20% of global oil (and liquefied natural gas) is disrupted long-term,” the average Brent crude price in 2026 could rise above $90 per barrel with three months of shutdown, and above $110 with six months of shutdown, with peaks significantly higher than these averages.

An escalation in direct attacks on infrastructure—including the 550,000 barrels per day Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities—marks a “true crisis mode” in Bernstein’s view, comparable only to the destruction of Kuwait’s oil sector in 1991.

Despite the turmoil, Himona expects oil companies’ investor distributions in the first quarter to remain largely unchanged, with excess cash likely used for debt reduction.

However, she warns that if the war continues, markets will eventually start pricing in economic slowdown/recession expectations, causing the sector’s trading performance to resemble that of broader stock markets.

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