[U.S. Stock Market Open] U.S. Secretary of Defense criticizes Iran heavily; oil prices still drop 8%, U.S. stocks remain weak (updating continuously)

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Tuesday will be the most intense day of military actions against Iran so far, with the largest number of fighter jets and bombers deployed to strike Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine indicated that the U.S. is targeting Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Caine also said that although Iranian forces are fighting, their combat effectiveness has not exceeded expectations. “I believe they are indeed fighting; I respect that, but I don’t think their fighting strength is stronger than we anticipated.”

Brent crude oil fell 8%, trading at $91.14 per barrel.

Amazon is returning to the bond market. Bloomberg reported that the company plans to issue up to 11 tranches, with maturities ranging from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche — bonds maturing in 2076 — is initially priced at about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. stocks fluctuated downward, with the Dow dropping 100 points to 47,639, the S&P 500 down 0.2% at 6,783, and the Nasdaq up 0.1% at 22,716.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6%, currently at 98.62; long-term U.S. Treasury yields steadied at 4.104%, remaining near 4.1%. Gold rebounded 1%, trading at $5,208 per ounce, supported by the lack of shock news from the U.S.-Iran situation.

In focus stocks, memory chip stocks continued to rebound. Micron (US: MU) rose 2%, back above $400; SanDisk (US: SNDK) increased 3%, currently at $606.81.

Oracle (US: ORCL) will announce earnings after the market closes.

Adam Hetts, head of the Global Multi-Asset Team and Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan Henderson, and Portfolio Manager Oliver Blackbourn stated that disruptions in energy supply, rising oil and natural gas prices, and the lack of a clear cooling path are increasing inflation risks and causing greater volatility in global markets. If the conflict persists, economic pressures could deepen; however, U.S. political considerations might quickly frame the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlooks uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. Details on the next page.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings announced after close

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces reliance on China; India iPhone production now accounts for 25%

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic files lawsuit demanding the U.S. Department of Defense rescind blacklisting

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says the war will end soon; gold prices stabilize and rebound

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues warnings again; Trump at press conference: Iran’s war will end soon but no timeline promised (ongoing updates)

【08:26】【AI + NVDA】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays the release of smart home display devices to wait for new Siri version

Below $1: U.S. stock market overview for March 9====

Monday: Trump says war is nearly over; oil prices plunge sharply; Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump told foreign media that the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete. Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left with only a few scattered. Their drones have been destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

Market close summary:

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“If you look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. The U.S. can do a lot in the Strait of Hormuz and warned Iran that obstructing this waterway will have consequences. “They’ve shot all they can; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “We will not hold back.”

Following the statement, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially fell 886 points to a low of 46,615; the S&P dropped 1.5% to 6,636; Nasdaq fell 1.5% to 22,061.

The Dow recovered to close up 239 points at 47,740; the S&P rose 0.8% to 6,795; Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude oil surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel at one point. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to counter the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the U.S.-Israel war.

After the Brussels G7 finance ministers’ online meeting, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, Europe and the U.S. have not experienced supply issues.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also mentioned that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting on energy to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks must be sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilized; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 98.877; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined to 4.107%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rose 2.5%, at $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK. Three B-52 bombers landed in one day, marking the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict began.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, signaling that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that existing conflicts may escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS noted that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not caused any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz out of caution, causing trade delays rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, there are no significant damages to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. Solutions to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. Details on the next page.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil prices surge over 10%, breaking $100; markets open one hour earlier due to daylight saving time

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. from Paramount, investing hundreds of millions of dollars

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices break $100, with NYMEX crude soaring 30%; other major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets; “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%; South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity will decrease by 4 million barrels per day by the weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil prices spike, raising inflation concerns

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: small cost; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (ongoing updates)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; markets open one hour earlier

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. employment data caused a major sell-off last Friday, with the Dow dropping 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.

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