Henkel's stock price gains narrow, Morgan Stanley warns that performance guidance risks are "continuously increasing"

2026-03-10 13:55:03

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Investing.com – Henkel AG’s stock rose 0.3% on Thursday, but the gains narrowed from the morning rally as the company awaits its fiscal 2025 earnings release.

Morgan Stanley analysts issued a warning today, stating that “Henkel is expected to provide a weak outlook for organic sales growth (OSG) for fiscal 2026 when it reports its fiscal 2025 results tomorrow morning.” The investment bank highlighted multiple adverse factors that could pressure the company’s organic sales growth prospects for fiscal 2026.

In the adhesives business, the S&P IPX Industrial Production Index forecasts only a 2.0% increase in 2026, while light vehicle production is expected to decline by 0.4%. Morgan Stanley also pointed out weak peer performance, including Tesa’s guidance for flat to slightly positive organic sales in fiscal 2026, and the bleak outlook from Arkema.

The bank noted that rising natural gas prices could pose downside risks, potentially slowing industrial production and pressuring demand for Henkel’s adhesives business, while also maintaining input cost inflation.

In the consumer goods segment, Morgan Stanley highlighted intense promotional activity in the European dishwasher detergent category, with Reckitt emphasizing competitive pressure during its recent earnings report. Procter & Gamble and Reckitt both indicated that category growth in Europe is flat to low single digits, while Nielsen data shows Henkel continues to lose market share.

In the U.S. laundry products market, Morgan Stanley noted that P&G expects increased promotional sales, suggesting Henkel’s pricing power in 2026 will be limited. Nielsen data shows Henkel continues to lose share in the laundry category, especially in February.

Morgan Stanley also emphasized Henkel’s exposure in the Middle East, where its IMEA division (covering India, Middle East, Africa, and Turkey) accounts for approximately 10-11% of the group’s sales.

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