Garrett Jin: Risk assets will continue to be under pressure until a reliable path reopens in the Strait of Hormuz

Mars Finance News, March 10 — “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted on social media that, “Before the March 9 rally at the $85/barrel level, Brent crude pricing reflected supply disruptions lasting several days to two weeks. When it reached $119.5 per barrel, the market had already begun to price in the possibility of supply disruption — but the re-pricing for the entire duration was just beginning. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis propagates through independent and mutually reinforcing layers, resulting not only in increased risk aversion but also in systemic changes in cross-asset correlations, geographic risk distribution, and market pricing of the duration of extreme events. Until a reliable path for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz emerges, risk assets will remain under pressure — even if the crisis eases, rebuilding the insurance mechanisms themselves will take 3 to 6 weeks. The upside scenario for risk assets involves the Strait of Hormuz reopening, or a ceasefire reached through successful summits, or other potential positive events; the downside scenario (diplomatic failure, long-term closure of the strait) has no historical pricing reference. In either case, recent trends show a rise in the duration premiums of crude oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations, and risk assets will continue to be under pressure until feasible solutions emerge.”