Analysis: Oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policies may dominate Bitcoin's next phase of movement

Odaily Planet Daily reports that analysts say Bitcoin’s next phase of movement is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve monetary policy, rather than solely internal crypto market factors. After a large-scale deleveraging in the market, leverage in the crypto derivatives market has significantly decreased, and market structure has changed. Bitcoin is shifting from a “leverage-driven correction phase” to a “macro liquidity-driven consolidation phase.” With derivatives participation declining, market sensitivity to overall liquidity conditions has noticeably increased. Recently, the energy market has become a key variable. Over the past three weeks, international oil prices have risen about 80% from lows to highs, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran conflicts. Oil prices typically rise alongside increasing real yields in the US and a strengthening dollar, which tightens global liquidity and may limit short-term upside for risk assets. Meanwhile, rising energy prices also boost inflation expectations. Since energy accounts for about 9% of the CPI basket in developed economies, sustained oil price increases could delay market expectations for rate cuts, keeping financial conditions tight. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s recent performance has shown a clear increase in correlation with tech stocks, rather than traditional safe-haven assets like gold. (The Block)