Analysts state that the four-year Bitcoin cycle remains intact; the bottom may occur in October 2026.

Despite recent volatility and debates about whether the traditional Bitcoin halving-driven four-year cycle is experiencing disruptions, some analysts remain confident that the cycle is fully intact. The pattern—sharp surges after halving followed by 50-80% declines—continues to align with historical data, with the latest correction from the peak reinforcing rather than contradicting it.
Reports from companies like Kaiko highlight that the decline to current levels reflects previous bear phases, not structural changes. Some projections suggest that the cycle bottom may be reached around October 2026, with the bear market expected to last most of the year before the next accumulation phase.
This outlook provides reassurance to long-term holders: despite short-term pain from macro factors ( oil shocks, the strength of the dollar ) is real, and the supply dynamics of the halving cycle remain a key driver. Traders should watch for signs of capitulation or stabilization around major support levels as the cycle approaches the anticipated bottom.