The darkest hour has arrived! Goldman Sachs: Memory supply shortages are squeezing, PC shipments may decline by 12% this year, Apple defies the trend and grows

The global PC market is facing a dual impact of memory supply shortages and rising prices. Goldman Sachs analysts have issued a warning that structural memory shortages will constrain PC supply and drive up end-user prices, potentially leading to a significant decline in global PC shipments by 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Katherine Murphy stated in a recent report that the “structural supply shortage” in the memory market will limit PC supply capabilities and force manufacturers to raise prices to protect already thin profit margins. She predicts that global PC shipments will decrease by approximately 12% year-over-year to 245 million units in 2026, with consumer PCs down 15% to 108 million units and commercial PCs down 9% to 137 million units.

This outlook puts direct pressure on the entire PC supply chain. Dell and HP are expected to see shipment declines in the high single digits to low double digits percentage-wise, while Apple may see slight growth thanks to new product launches, including the entry-level MacBook Neo. For consumers, PC prices are almost certain to rise.

DRAM and NAND costs double, squeezing profit margins

Murphy detailed in the report how rising memory costs are impacting the cost structure of PC manufacturing. Under normal market conditions, DRAM and NAND components typically account for about 20% of the total material cost of a PC; however, in the current pricing environment, this proportion has surged to around 40%, creating unprecedented cost pressures.

In response to soaring component costs, PC manufacturers mainly have three options: directly raising product prices, reducing discounts and promotions, or adjusting product mixes to steer consumers toward higher-priced models. Regardless of the approach, the ultimate burden falls on consumers in the form of higher purchase costs.

Memory spot prices surge, clear market signals emerge

The sharp fluctuations in memory prices are already evident in the spot market.

According to data from price tracking website CamelCamelCamel, the Amazon price for Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory kits was around $150 in early fall 2025. Since then, prices have skyrocketed, remaining around $740 this year, representing an increase of nearly 400%.

Tech media outlet Tom’s Hardware also issued warnings, noting that sustained high memory prices are transmitting to the entire consumer electronics supply chain, with the PC market being particularly affected. Goldman Sachs has previously issued multiple warnings about memory shortages, labeling it as the next major global tech supply chain bottleneck after AI computing power.

Consumer market hit hardest, commercial sector not immune

Segment-wise, the consumer PC market is more heavily impacted than the commercial market. Murphy forecasts a 15% year-over-year decline in consumer PC shipments, compared to a 9% decline in commercial PCs, reflecting higher price sensitivity and demand elasticity among individual consumers.

While the commercial PC market is relatively more resilient, it still faces the dual pressures of supply tightening and rising costs. For investors, traditional PC giants like Dell and HP face greater uncertainty regarding profitability, whereas Apple may maintain relative resilience thanks to new product cycles. Overall, the fundamentals of the PC market are under significant pressure by 2026, with considerable uncertainty surrounding the industry’s recovery timeline.

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