The international fertilizer prices surge. Will the Middle East conflict lead to a global food crisis?

2026-03-10 12:07:15

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[Caixin] As the US-Iran war enters its 11th day, the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial to the global energy and chemical industries, remains largely closed. How will this impact global fertilizer supply and food security?

International fertilizer prices have already surged significantly. On March 9, the main futures contract for urea on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was at $584.5 per ton, up 25% from February 28, before the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. On the same day, the spot market price for sulfur in China reached 4,550 yuan per ton, a 17% increase compared to before the conflict escalation.

Cheng Guoqiang, director of the National Grain Security Strategy Research Institute, told Caixin that fertilizers are the cornerstone of modern agriculture and are considered “the food of food.” Currently, the near-stagnation of the Strait of Hormuz has led to supply shortages of key products such as urea, phosphate fertilizers, and sulfur, severely disrupting the global fertilizer supply chain.

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