$BTC Recently, many short-term reliefs in the market are related to announcements by G7 countries considering the use of millions of barrels of oil reserves to address oil supply shortages. Additionally, Trump stated that the war could be ending soon and that victory has been achieved. This may be an attempt to lower soaring oil prices, but whether the war is truly ending remains to be seen. The reaction of oil prices has been more impulsive because the ground situation has not changed significantly. Oil fields in the Middle East are still under attack, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, severely impacting supply dynamics.

In any case, these developments have temporarily lowered oil prices and also affected the DXY, starting around the 100 level, which helps ease the asset markets. That said, the pattern of rising oil prices benefiting the dollar and being detrimental to the asset markets still holds. The longer the tension persists, the more sustainable the rise in oil prices becomes. DXY is now retesting the important 3D trendline that was recently reclaimed. Any geopolitical news that favors sustained tension, especially reports of worsening oil supply shortages, could help push it back toward the 100 level, which would negatively impact the asset markets.